890 FXUS63 KGLD 072157 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 257 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 255 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft will envelop the western/central CONUS early this week.. as a broad upper level trough erodes (and ultimately supplants) the upper level ridge presently situated over the MS River Valley. Through Tonight: Light and variable winds will shift to the NNE- NE late tonight -- as a weak/broad lee cyclone (presently situated over eastern CO and far western KS) tracks slowly southeast toward the KS/OK border -- advecting a cooler airmass into the region from the N. Overnight lows will highly depend upon the precise timing of the cold frontal passage.. and whether or not (and to what extent) orographic cirrus develops along the Colorado Front Range. Based on the latest guidance.. which indicates a somewhat slower frontal passage.. expect lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s, coldest in north/northwest portions of the area. Mon-Mon night: In the wake of the frontal passage Monday morning.. with persistent 10-20 mph northeasterly low-level flow.. expect near-normal highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s, warmest south. Expect mostly clear skies.. though occasional bouts of orographic cirrus are possible.. with overnight lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s.. coldest in eastern CO. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 251 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 At the start of the extended period, models show the CWA in the base of a weak upper air trough with a ridge over the Rockies on Tuesday morning. By Tuesday evening, the ridge progresses over the CWA with a trough behind it in the western CONUS. On Wednesday, the flow over the CWA turns southwesterly as the trough moves into the front range of the Rockies that will turn northwesterly by the evening when the trough passes through the CWA. On Thursday, models show an upper air low strengthening in the Northern Plains and thus reorienting and strengthening the trough over the CWA. The upper air flow looks to stay northwesterly on Thursday until Friday morning when it changes to a northerly direction as the low moves eastward and tilts the trough in a more positive orientation. Models begin to differ going into Saturday when the GFS shows the trough moving eastward a bit quicker than the ECMWF with both showing a broad ridge in the west moving towards the CWA. On Sunday, the CWA's flow aloft stays northwesterly as the front part of the ridge is over the CWA. At the surface, the CWA expects to stay dry to begin the long term period before seeing a slight chance of precipitation on Wednesday. Models show a lee side surface low associated with the upper air pattern moving northeast from the south of the CWA bringing some moisture north and allowing the areas north of I-70 to see some chances of light rain in the latter half of Wednesday. Currently, temperatures look to stay warm enough to avoid turning to snow, but this may change depending on future model runs. As the low pressure system continues northeast on Thursday, an associated cold front looks to pass through the CWA late Thursday evening. Windy conditions from the north-northwest might be in store on Wednesday and Thursday as this system strengthens as model forecasted wind gusts reach to around 30 to 35. Mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday through the end of the forecast period due to the influences of the upper air ridge. The Tri-State area expects to see the daytime highs on Tuesday near the 60 degree mark with highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Daytime highs on Thursday look to cool to the upper 40s to lower 50s range followed by highs on Friday between the middle and upper 40s. The weekend sees warmer high temperatures during the day in the upper 50s to lower 60s range. The Tri-State area sees overnight lows on Tuesday between the middle and upper 30s followed by Wednesday night's lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s range. Thursday's overnight lows expect to be in the lower 20s to lower 30s with lows on Friday night between the lower and upper 20s. Overnight lows for the remainder of the long term period look to range between the upper 20s and middle 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1200 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 VFR conditions and clear skies will prevail through the TAF period.. with ceilings confined to transient cirrus AOA 20 kft agl. Light and variable winds will prevail this afternoon and evening. Winds will shift to the N-NNE at 10-15 knots after midnight.. ~07Z at MCK and ~09Z at GLD.. prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...076 AVIATION...VINCENT