694 FXUS63 KGLD 072153 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 253 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Morning) Issued at 207 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 A broad area of high clouds have developed on the lee side of a ridge using Nighttime Microphysics. Locales that are under the clouds are seeing the lack of radiational cooling affect temperatures (ie: Yuma is at 36 degrees, where as Goodland is at 50 degrees at 08Z). A weak low pressure system develops near the Kansas/Colorado border along with a dryline present just ahead. Behind the dryline, near critical fire weather conditions are expected with RH values ranging from the single digits to the mid teens (along and west of Highway 83 from McCook to Oakley. Winds look to remain variable around 10 knots, but can't rule out isolated instances of 15-20 knot wind gusts where deeper mixing can materialize. The other aspect for Sunday will be warm temperatures which are forecasted to be in the upper 70s to a few locales reaching the mid 80s. A few daily near record to record highs are expected along with KITR and KGLD nearing the monthly record high for November (see Climate Section for more details). Sunday night into Monday, a dry passage of a cold front brings more seasonably temperatures back into the area as low temperatures for the start of the new work week look to be in the low to upper 30s and daytime highs for Monday in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Monday night a weak disturbance moves across NE Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle; forecast soundings indicates some moisture looks to be present within the profile mainly north of Highway 36. The best dynamics and moisture look to be across western/ west central Nebraska but cant rule out sprinkles over the northern counties of the CWA through the night as overnight lows fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s over the area. Tuesday a surface high develops over the northern plains leaving the area dry with high temperatures in the 50s across the area. The cold front that moved through Monday morning looks to stall out over west Texas and retreat back north as warm front late Tuesday evening and into Wednesday morning. As this occurs clouds develop just ahead which will bring low temperatures Wednesday morning above freezing across the entire area. May need to keep an eye on fog potential for this time frame as well. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 251 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 At the start of the extended period, models show the CWA in the base of a weak upper air trough with a ridge over the Rockies on Tuesday morning. By Tuesday evening, the ridge progresses over the CWA with a trough behind it in the western CONUS. On Wednesday, the flow over the CWA turns southwesterly as the trough moves into the front range of the Rockies that will turn northwesterly by the evening when the trough passes through the CWA. On Thursday, models show an upper air low strengthening in the Northern Plains and thus reorienting and strengthening the trough over the CWA. The upper air flow looks to stay northwesterly on Thursday until Friday morning when it changes to a northerly direction as the low moves eastward and tilts the trough in a more positive orientation. Models begin to differ going into Saturday when the GFS shows the trough moving eastward a bit quicker than the ECMWF with both showing a broad ridge in the west moving towards the CWA. On Sunday, the CWA's flow aloft stays northwesterly as the front part of the ridge is over the CWA. At the surface, the CWA expects to stay dry to begin the long term period before seeing a slight chance of precipitation on Wednesday. Models show a lee side surface low associated with the upper air pattern moving northeast from the south of the CWA bringing some moisture north and allowing the areas north of I-70 to see some chances of light rain in the latter half of Wednesday. Currently, temperatures look to stay warm enough to avoid turning to snow, but this may change depending on future model runs. As the low pressure system continues northeast on Thursday, an associated cold front looks to pass through the CWA late Thursday evening. Windy conditions from the north-northwest might be in store on Wednesday and Thursday as this system strengthens as model forecasted wind gusts reach to around 30 to 35. Mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday through the end of the forecast period due to the influences of the upper air ridge. The Tri-State area expects to see the daytime highs on Tuesday near the 60 degree mark with highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Daytime highs on Thursday look to cool to the upper 40s to lower 50s range followed by highs on Friday between the middle and upper 40s. The weekend sees warmer high temperatures during the day in the upper 50s to lower 60s range. The Tri-State area sees overnight lows on Tuesday between the middle and upper 30s followed by Wednesday night's lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s range. Thursday's overnight lows expect to be in the lower 20s to lower 30s with lows on Friday night between the lower and upper 20s. Overnight lows for the remainder of the long term period look to range between the upper 20s and middle 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1200 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 VFR conditions and clear skies will prevail through the TAF period.. with ceilings confined to transient cirrus AOA 20 kft agl. Light and variable winds will prevail this afternoon and evening. Winds will shift to the N-NNE at 10-15 knots after midnight.. ~07Z at MCK and ~09Z at GLD.. prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 Sunday, near critical fire weather conditions are expected along and west of Highway 83 from McCook to Scott City with RH values near 15% and dropping the further west with single digits over east Colorado. Winds are expected to be variable throughout the day and remain around 10 knots or less a few isolated instances of 15-20 knot gusts are possible wherever deeper mixing is able to occur. If a fire were to start the varying wind directions may cause it to change direction suddenly. Despite the weaker winds fuels, are favorable for fire development across the area and the low RH values increase the risk. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 Sunday November 7th, 2021 Goodland: Record 82 degrees in 2020 Forecasted temperature 83 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 87 on 11/10/1927 Burlington: Record 82 degrees in 2020 Forecasted temperature 83 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 84 on 11/10/1927 Colby: Record 84 degrees in 1980 Forecasted temperature 81 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 87 on 11/10/1927 Tribune: Record 83 degrees in 2009 Forecasted temperature 80 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 86 on 11/01/2001 Hill City: Record 83 degrees in 2010 Forecasted temperature 82 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 87 on 11/08/2006 Yuma: Record 82 degrees in 2010 Forecasted temperature 79 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 90 on 11/01/1901 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TT LONG TERM...076 AVIATION...VINCENT FIRE WEATHER...TT CLIMATE...TT