410 FXUS65 KABQ 072128 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 228 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of weak disturbances cross the central Rockies early this week. Precipitation chances across the northern mountains will be very little to none, but the bigger story will be the cooler temperatures and the breezy to windy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Continued breezy to windy conditions will likely be in store during the latter half of the week with a gradual warm up by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... The most exciting weather to watch the next 48 hrs will be cirrus and the potential for a couple gorgeous sunrise/sunsets. Ooh la la! Southwest flow aloft will continue strengthening across the region thru Monday night. Surface pressure falls along the Front Range will keep breezy southwest winds in place across the east. Downslope flow with very dry air will aid a couple more record highs Monday. Valley inversions will develop again tonight and Monday night however high clouds will limit their strength for central and western NM. Guyer LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... A more pronounced shortwave is still expected to cross the central Rockies Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Whether or not this system results in any precipitation near the NM/CO border will depend on how far south it tracks, and most model guidance isn't optimistic about it. The deterministic runs of the GFS and NAM keep this shortwave's moisture well north into CO, keeping NM dry. The deterministic runs of the ECMWF and CMC produce very light shower activity over the northern mountains Tuesday night. The model trend over the past several runs has seemingly been trending drier so just kept slight chances for PoPs over the far northern Tusas Mountains. What is the bigger story for northern and central NM with this system are the cooler temperatures and the winds. This system brings a Pacific cold front through west to east Tuesday night with the backdoor portion of the front by midday Wednesday. Temperatures cool behind these fronts Tuesday and moreso on Wednesday, but temperatures are expected to remain above normal for most. Northwest winds also strengthen with the passage of this system, and while 700mb winds have trended down slightly with the new model guidance, they are still windy at about 40-50 knots along and east of the central mountain chain. Like the previous shift, opted to increase wind speeds above NBM guidance, and the possibility for wind highlights Tuesday & Wednesday will be closely monitored. Northwest flow will be the rule Thursday through the remainder of the forecast period as a cold low develops over the Midwest and a strong area of high pressure forms off the coast of Baja California. Breezy to windy conditions will likely be the main concern in the far extended as all model guidance depicts a tight pressure gradient across the area with the northwest flow. Otherwise, a gradual warm up looks to be in store with no precipitation in sight. 15 && .FIRE WEATHER... Southwest flow with very dry and warm conditions will persist thru Tuesday before a cold front slides thru the region Wednesday. Very localized critical fire wx is likely over the high plains of eastern NM today and Monday (and possibly Tuesday). Winds will turn west to northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday and become strong, especially over the high terrain where gusts of 40 to 50 mph are likely. A few rain/snow showers are possible near the CO border but confidence is low and amounts will be light anyway. Temps will trend colder thru Friday but humidity will remain low. Overnight temps will be colder as well with strong midslope inversions likely. Ventilation will be good to excellent thru Tuesday then deteriorate Wednesday to Friday. Guyer && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR all terminals the next 24 hrs with increasing cirrus aft 21Z. Southwest winds may gust to near 25 kt from 21Z to 01Z around the high terrain, KGUP, and parts of eastern NM. Guyer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 38 69 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 29 66 28 62 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 35 66 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 30 67 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 30 65 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 25 69 25 66 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 34 67 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 43 69 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 36 67 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 31 71 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 37 76 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 29 61 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 44 63 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 41 65 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 60 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 28 59 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 21 60 21 56 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 27 66 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 37 67 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 30 70 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 41 65 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 36 69 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 70 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 43 71 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 37 73 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 71 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 36 72 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 41 73 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 34 72 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 39 72 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 32 72 32 71 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 45 71 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 42 71 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 42 74 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 67 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 42 69 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 38 69 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 71 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 38 67 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 45 68 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 44 68 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 40 71 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 33 73 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 32 75 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 40 69 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 78 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 41 73 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 40 80 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 77 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 45 82 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 44 80 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 44 82 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 41 81 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 41 83 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 78 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 43 75 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$