099 FXUS61 KOKX 072121 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 421 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Northeast through Monday night, then weaken and slide to the south on Tuesday. High pressure will weaken across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. A weak cold front approaches Tuesday night and moves across Wednesday. High pressure returns thereafter for Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure moves east and off the New England coast Thursday night. A large frontal system will then move in from the west and slows down within the forecast region Friday into the start of next weekend. This system will move east of the region next Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... High pressure will remain over the region tonight. The main forecast challenge for tonight will be the sky and temperature forecast. High clouds from the system well to the south along with slightly higher winds, especially along the coast, will mean warmer temperatures. There will still be some radiational cooling, as lows in the outlying areas will still be on the cold side, in the middle to upper 20s. Along the coast however, temperatures will drop the upper 30s to lower 40s, while the New York City will see lows in the lower to middle 40s. Only parts of the CWA unaffected by freeze conditions are Hudson NJ, NYC, and S Nassau, which is perfectly in line with frost/freeze climatology. S Nassau was previously in a Frost Advisory tonight. However, with the warmer temperatures forecast and slightly higher winds, these conditions are no longer expected, and the Frost Advisory was cancelled. Patchy frost is still possible and if winds become weaker and clouds dissipate sooner, then more in the way of frost is possible for S Nassau. Patchy fog may also develop, especially late tonight. However, was not confident enough to include in the forecast. If patchy fog does develop, it could develop in the colder locations, and patchy freezing fog may be a threat. We will monitor for this and if this does develop, an SPS will be issued later tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A return to above normal temperatures is expected Monday and Tuesday as heights rise aloft. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Monday, with slightly warmer readings expected on Tuesday. Skies will be mostly clear as the storm system to the south slowly moves away from the coast. The clear skies will mean another night of radiational cooling, but with a warming air mass, temperatures will not drop as low as previous nights. Frost will once again be possible in the normally colder spots. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure weakens across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Its center will remain in the Southeast US. The winds will be light and westerly Tuesday into Tuesday night. 850mb temperatures around 8 to 9 degrees C but with vertical mixing will be quite limited. As a result, temperature forecast trended slightly lower Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and will move across on Wednesday. The 850mb NW winds increase and the 850mb temperatures slightly decrease. The highest positive vorticity advection stays well north of the region. The lack of moisture with this front as well as lack of vertical forcing will make for a dry frontal passage. High temperatures Wednesday will be rather similar to the previous day as more vertical mixing and adiabatic warming will allow for greater warmth especially at the coast via downslope. Ridging will return in the mid levels and high pressure will build in at the surface from the north and west. The high pressure area will be moving east of the region Thursday and off the coast of New England Thursday night. A large frontal system will be approaching from the west. In the mid levels, a deepening trough to the west of the region across the Midwest will allow for more southerly flow across the local region. Warmer than normal day expected Friday with highs forecast in the more in the mid to upper 60s. This will increase moist air and warm air advection. The highest positive vorticity advection will move in as the trough enters within the region for next weekend. Multiple areas of low pressure with the frontal system move across during this time. Rain moves back into the forecast Thursday night and remains into next weekend. Rain showers have higher likelihood Friday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure remains in control. VFR conditions with light and variable winds expected through the TAF period. Direction of winds will be mostly N to NE. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Mon-Thursday...VFR. .Friday...MVFR conditions with periods of IFR possible in showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... SCA on the ocean waters is now in effect from 1 am tonight through Monday night as 5 ft waves are expected by begin earlier than previously forecasted. The SCA may need to be extended into Tuesday with 5 ft seas continuing through then. Winds are expected to remain below 25 kt through this time frame. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through Thursday night. Heavy rain is possible at times Friday into next weekend but too early to determine exact rainfall amounts. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flood advisories and statements remain in effect for the daytime high tide cycle along the shorelines of Lower NY harbor, the south shore back bays of NYC and Nassau County, and SW CT. High astronomical tides due to a recent new moon and increasing E swell will maintain total water levels high enough at high tide to cause isolated to scattered minor coastal flooding in these areas. This threat should continue with the daytime high tide cycle on Monday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/JP NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Fig MARINE...JM/JP HYDROLOGY...JM/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...