520 FXUS65 KVEF 072114 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 114 PM PST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue this afternoon before a trough of low pressure move across northern California early in the week bringing cloud cover and cooler temperatures to most areas. An atmospheric river will move into central California and weaken as it moves south Monday and Tuesday bringing the chance of high elevation snow (>8500ft) to the Sierras, as well as some lower elevation rainfall in the northern Owens Valley. All areas will be drier and warmer during the second half of the week as broad high pressure builds over the desert southwest. && .SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Tuesday. The main forecast concern during the short term period continues to be the approaching Pacific storm system and associated atmospheric river. While the main moisture surge and energy from this system will remain north of the CWA, the crest of the Sierras in northern Inyo county will likely see a period of snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. The morning guidance runs have backed off a bit on precipitation amounts. Snowfall in Aspendell is still expected to be an inch or two, but the chance of seeing more than 4" has decreased to only about 2 percent. The higher peaks in northern Inyo county should see on average of about a foot of snow. In the lower elevations of the Owens valley any precipitation that falls will be rain. QPF amounts continue to decrease and only .1 to .2 inches of rain is expected at Bishop. Wind will be another concern with this system. Winds will increase late Monday afternoon and evening as the low takes on a more negative tilt and energy pushes over the Sierras. The NBM 4.1 is showing gusts in excess of 60mph for a period overnight Monday into Tuesday morning along the Sierra crest, but conditions still do not look very favorable for downslope winds to develop in the Owens Valley. A wind product will still likely be needed for CA 519 Monday night into Tuesday morning and for CA 523 during the day on Tuesday, but at this time it still looks like wind speeds will be in the advisory range. In other areas of the CWA, little if any precipitation is expected. Clouds associated with the above system will overspread southern Nevada resulting in temperatures returning to near normal levels on Monday. Further south, the cloud cover will not be as extensive and temperatures, while a few degrees cooler than over the weekend, will still remain slightly above normal early in the week. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday. The aforementioned trough and associated atmospheric river are forecast to be gone Wednesday, with decreasing clouds and post-frontal northerly winds expected areawide, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible down the Colorado River Valley. Thereafter, models agree on ridging building somewhere near or west of the Desert Southwest, meaning dry weather with above normal temperatures areawide. If the ridge builds overhead, winds would be light; if it builds farther west, northerly breezes would be felt down the Colorado River Valley. Otherwise, barring a major change in the expected pattern evolution, low impact weather is likely outside of the Colorado River Valley through the period. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...South wind gusts 20-25kt rest of the afternoon with gusts subsiding between 01Z-03Z this evening. South wind expected to continue overnight through Monday between 8-12 kts. No operationally significant cloud cover forecast. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Prevailing south to southwest wind across all terminal sites during the afternoon and evening hours. Gusts 20-25 kts at terminal sites but local gusts 30-40 kts possible especially around higher terrain. Cloud cover should remain above 12 kft with those lower clouds isolated to the southern Sierra. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Planz LONG TERM...TB3 AVIATION...Pierce For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter