123 FXUS63 KSGF 072059 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 259 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Forecast Messages: 1. Pleasant weather through early Wednesday, with highs reaching the low to mid-70s for some areas Monday. 2. A front attempts to push through western portions of the forecast area on Tuesday, however with limited moisture precipitation chances are low. 3. Storm system brings showers and a few thunderstorms to the area along a cold front late Wednesday into Thursday. Severe weather is not expected. 4. Cooler temperatures are expected towards the end of the week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 A brief warm-up began today as an upper-level ridge started to build into the region. Breezy southerly winds should keep temperatures in the low 40s across the eastern Ozarks to near 50 in southeastern Kansas overnight tonight. This overall ridging pattern is expected to continue into Monday. As surface high- pressure shifts eastward, southerly winds and low-level warm air advection will persist into Monday allowing for another warmer day across the Ozarks. 850mb temperatures in the 15-17 degree C range and clear skies will also support above normal temperatures on Monday. Went with the higher side of guidance for max temps Monday (NBM 90th percentile), which would put temperatures near 70 into the low 70s across the CWA. A few areas could see temperatures rise into the mid 70s Monday afternoon. A tightened pressure gradient will continue into Monday allowing for another day of breezy southerly winds gusting to 20-30 mph at times. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Monday Night into Tuesday: A weak mid-level shortwave feature looks to push through the region late Monday allowing for an increase in cloud cover Monday night. An associated cold front will attempt to progress into western portions of the CWA Tuesday afternoon. However, latest model guidance suggests that it will not make it through the entirety of the CWA and that a warm front should set up over central Missouri. The latest suite of deterministic model guidance sparks small amounts of QPF along these frontal features. With dewpoints in the low to mid 50s and large dewpoint depressions, this drier airmass should keep precipitation chances on the lower side. However, there may be just enough lift to squeeze out some showers and sprinkles, mainly north of I-44 Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Tuesday Night through Thursday: An upper-level trough looks to progress across the western CONUS late Tuesday and dig into the Central Plains by Wednesday morning. Cloud cover is expected to increase ahead of this system Tuesday night. Surface cyclogenesis should initiate near the TX/OK Panhandle/southwestern Kansas area Wednesday morning. Gusty southerly/southwesterly winds and a 40 knot low-level jet will allow for a period of moisture advection across the area ahead of a cold front that looks to push through the CWA late Wednesday. Better instability should materialize west of our CWA with only modest instability expected in our area. Low GEFS/ECMWF probabilities of greater than 500 J/KG of CAPE extend only into our southeastern Kansas/southwestern Missouri counties. Therefore, severe potential looks rather low at the moment with rain showers and a few thunderstorms looking like the most probable event along this cold front. The front and associated rainfall looks to progress eastward rather quickly, exiting the region Thursday afternoon. As for rainfall totals, a general 0.5" or less looks possible across the CWA. NBM probabilities of 24-hr QPF greater than 0.5" only reach 30-40%. The highest totals look to fall west of Highway 65 where greater instability looks to materialize. Cooler temperatures can be expected behind the front with highs on Thursday in the mid 50s to low 60s. Friday through Sunday: A cooler airmass looks to settle into the region towards the end of the week into the weekend. Another shortwave could round about the main troughing pattern, providing a reinforcement of cooler air on Friday. However, the WPC Cluster Analysis Tool (WCAT) still shows some disparities within the upper height fields for Friday and into the weekend, so forecast adjustments will most likely need to be made in future updates. Ensemble temperature spreads are starting to gather around the mid to upper 40s for high temperatures on Friday with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s Friday night into Saturday morning. Larger temperature spreads continue to present themselves amongst the ensemble members for the rest of the weekend. Nonetheless, an overall cooler airmass is expected to take shape across the region towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Current satellite imagery shows high clouds progressing through the forecast area. As an upper-level ridge continues building into the region and surface high-pressure slides eastward, VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period for all TAF sites. A tightened surface pressure gradient will allow for south winds to occasionally gust near 20 knots this afternoon, especially at KJLN. Low-level wind shear is possible tonight, mainly at KJLN and KSGF. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Langfeld SHORT TERM...Langfeld LONG TERM...Langfeld AVIATION...Langfeld