387 
FXUS64 KBRO 072059
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
259 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Overnight Sunday into
Monday, the 500mb ridge over Central Texas will move east towards
the Ohio River Valley. A 500mb shortwave trough forms in its 
place as the ridge exits allowing for light southeasterly onshore 
flow to return tonight. Light winds will shift from easterly to 
southeasterly as the synoptic set up changes overnight with 
temperatures slightly below normal in the upper 50s. As for 
Monday, highs will be seasonal in the 80s and lows in the 60s. 
Light winds and dewpoints in the 60s will allow for patchy fog to 
develop across portions of the CWA early Monday and Tuesday 
mornings. No rain is expected at this time through the short term 
period.

We will likely see water levels approach minor flood category 
again for the lower Texas coast this evening so a coastal flood 
statement has been issued from 6PM to 12AM for minor tidal 
overflow.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): A flat H5 ridge will be in 
place over South Texas and the Northwest Gulf on Tuesday. High 
pressure will simultaneously lie over the South United States. A 
short wave trough will move across the Intermountain West on 
Tuesday causing pressure falls on the High Plains and eventually 
supporting the movement of a modified Pacific air mass into 
northern Texas by Wednesday and Wednesday night. A secondary vort
max over the Central to Northern Plains and ridging over the 
Pacific Northwest will help push the front farther south Thursday 
night into Friday and through deep South Texas during the day on 
Friday. Rain chances will be highest over the Gulf waters as the 
cold front pushes through, but some activity will be possible 
along the coast as well Thursday night into Friday. The ECMWF and 
GFS seemed a little more in phase today, agreeing better on the 
air mass and frontal timing. The ECMWF was a bit colder and wetter
than the GFS Saturday through Sunday, slightly below normal on the
temps. Overall, however, used the NBM with better confidence 
today. Drier air will arrive over the weekend with the new air 
mass, dropping inland afternoon relative humidity values into the 
20s and slightly increasing the fire weather threat.

&&

.MARINE:

Tonight through Monday Night...Light easterly flow continues until
overnight as the ridge moves out of the area for Monday. Winds
will be southeasterly but will stay light. Seas will stay calm
around 2 to 3 feet as the pressure gradient remains weak along the
lower Texas coast.

Tuesday through Friday Night...Light to moderate southeast winds 
and low to moderate seas through Thursday. The approach of a cold 
front will bring moderate to strong north winds Thursday night to
Friday as well as moderate to high seas and the possibility of 
low end small craft advisory conditions on the Gulf Waters. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday 
or Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  63  82  65  81 /   0   0   0   0 
BROWNSVILLE          63  84  65  84 /   0   0   0  10 
HARLINGEN            60  83  62  84 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN              60  86  62  86 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      58  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  79  73  78 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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