150 FXUS63 KDVN 072051 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 251 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 250 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 18Z data has low pressure near KHON with another area of low pressure developing in southeast Colorado. A cold front ran from the South Dakota low back into Wyoming. Dew points were in the 40s from the Great Lakes into the southern Plains with 30s over the northern Plains. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night) ISSUED AT 250 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Quiet and mainly dry conditions will be seen as a weak storm system approaches the area. Clouds will be on the increase Monday night. Temperatures will average above normal. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 250 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 The models generally agree that a significant storm system will move through the Midwest around mid-week with much colder temperatures Friday into next weekend. Tuesday/Tuesday night Assessment...low confidence on precipitation chances The next front moves through the area Tuesday. A weak low will move along the front along with an associated upper level disturbance. The better forcing is behind the front and generally above the shallow moisture layer. Thus there are questions whether any precipitation will be generated. The most likely scenario is spotty sprinkles or some very patchy light rain. Cloud cover during the morning will initially suppress temperatures but clearing in the afternoon should allow a respectable recovery. Tuesday night looks to be dry with above normal temperatures ahead of the approaching storm system. Wednesday through Friday Assessment...high confidence on a storm system. Medium confidence regarding overall impacts. The first significant fall storm system will move through the Midwest. The global models continue to slow down the arrival of the storm system. As a result Wednesday morning will be dry with a fairly high probability that the first half of the afternoon 'should' be dry west of the Mississippi. The models are similar in generating a widespread rainfall that moves from west to east across the area, mainly Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Precipitation will be in the form of rain but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out late Wednesday afternoon and evening west of the Mississippi. Right now the model consensus has slight chance to chance pops across the area Wednesday afternoon with the highest pops west of the Mississippi. Likely to categorical pops are now in place Wednesday night with slight chance to chance pops on Thursday. The rain will end quickly from west to east on Thursday as a push of dry air aloft moves into the area. The models are mixed whether or not there will be any clearing. Regardless Thursday will be much cooler with highs generally 50 to 55. Thursday night the cold front sweeps through the area and much colder air moves in along with windy conditions. Conceptually the model solutions suggest a large expanse of wrap around clouds moving into the area that will persist through Friday. Atmospheric profiles show strong cooling aloft with several upper level disturbances moving through the area Thursday night into Friday. Thus light precipitation, most likely in the form of isolated showers are possible. With colder air moving in aloft Thursday night and continuing into Friday the potential is there for cooling of the atmospheric column with the light precipitation. Thus it is not out of the question of seeing isolated rain or even snow showers, especially Friday. However the still very warm ground will not result in any accumulation. Friday will be a raw and cold day. Cloud cover, colder air and spotty precipitation suggests about a 5 degree diurnal swing in from the Thursday night lows. It is possible that high temperatures on Friday may only be 35 to 40 across the area. Friday night through Sunday Assessment...high confidence on much below normal temperatures. Right now the model consensus has dry but very chilly conditions for next weekend. Any spotty showers that develop on Friday will dissipate Friday evening leaving the remainder of the weekend dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 VFR conditions will be seen through 00z/09 as as weak storm system approaches the Mississippi river from the Plains. After 00z/08 high probability of LLWS across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois through 12z/08. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...08