259 FXUS63 KILX 072027 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 227 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Mild and mostly dry weather continues through the middle of the week. A strong system will send a cold front through the area later this week, bringing precipitation chances and much cooler temperatures for the end of the week into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 227 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Surface analysis this afternoon depicts high pressure stretched from the Gulf coast northward into the Ohio River Valley with an area of low pressure positioned over the Northern Plains states. Upper ridging aloft will spill into the eastern CONUS early this week as a few shortwaves moving across southern Canada work to flatten the flow. Mild weather will continue here locally with daytime highs through the early week period topping out in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s. Mostly dry conditions are expected during the short term period. However, a weak shortwave trough will send a cold front through the area later on Tuesday bringing an increase in cloud cover and the potential for a few isolated rain showers. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 227 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 A brief period of upper ridging builds back over the area going into Wednesday as a trough works into the Plains states. At the surface high pressure will get pushed east as a surface low spins up over the Northern Plains and tracks into the Upper Mississippi River Valley as it strengthens. A cold front will stretch from the low's center to the Gulf of Mexico and work east into the Midwest states later Wednesday night through Thursday, bringing our next shot at widespread precipitation. Due to the rapid intensification and dynamics of the system, there may be some isolated thunder at times across western areas late Wednesday night. However, the better instability looks to stay west of the area. Temperatures will be warm enough for ptypes to remain in the form of rain. However, as colder air starts filtering in and the backside of the low swings through the area on Friday, a few scattered rain/snow showers will be possible at times. Much cooler temperatures filter back into the area behind the front for the end of the week into next weekend as northwest flow sets up aloft. High temperatures look to range from 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal during this period. Occasional chances for scattered showers look possible going into next weekend as a few shortwaves move through northwest flow and steepen low-level lapse rates. Canadian high pressure then sinks southward into the area by the latter half of next weekend int early next week, acting to dry things out. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. South winds with occasional gusts of 15-20 kts will be possible this afternoon mainly west of I-55 before lessening for the overnight period. LLWS gets introduced tonight as a 40-45 kt low-level jet moves into wester- central Illinois. The better set up for LLWS will be west of I-57, though borderline conditions will be possible east of there at CMI. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NMB SHORT TERM...NMB LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...NMB