713 FXUS61 KILN 072015 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 315 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week. This will lead to dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The next chance of rain will arrive on Thursday before cooler air filters back into the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Mainly clear skies prevail across the entire region this afternoon with just a few cirrus streaming into the OH Vly from time to time through the near term period. This will occur as a broad area of sfc high pressure remains entrenched from the TN Vly NE into parts of the interior NE CONUS. High temps once again exceeded most guidance this afternoon with the dry BL air in place and plentiful sunshine. Midlevel ridging is nudging east into the local area through the near term period before the midlevel flow pattern becomes a bit more zonal by late Monday into Tuesday with subtle height rises continuing. There will again be a quick dropoff in temps this evening once the sun goes down, with lows ranging from the lower 30s in the lower Scioto Valley/NE KY to around 40 degrees in WC OH where the winds may stay up a bit more due to a subtly-tightening sfc pressure gradient. Will likely see more river valley fog tonight, although the signal is not /quite/ as strong as has been the case. Nevertheless, the calm winds, chilly temps, and clear skies should promote river valley BR/FG along the larger tributaries late tonight into Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... We will be on rinse-and-repeat mode for the weather once again on Monday, with temps nudging up another 2-3 degrees from what was the case Sunday. Highs will generally be in the mid 60s with abundant sunshine once again. S/W energy ejecting east into the central plains will approach the western OH Vly beyond the end of the short term period, so the local area will remain completely dry through daybreak Tuesday. Lows Monday night bottom out in the upper 30s (east) to lower 40s (west). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Quasi-zonal flow is expected over the Ohio Valley region on Tuesday with a meager shortwave moving through the lower Great Lakes. Moisture is fairly sparse with this shortwave so shower chances remain limited to slight chance across west-central Ohio Tuesday night. Otherwise, clouds will continue to increase through the overnight with temperatures in the mid 40s. On Wednesday, weak high pressure temporarily builds in across the Great Lakes allowing for breaks in cloud cover and another warm day. Attention shifts to west Wednesday night as the next low pressure system deepens over the middle Mississippi River region. Confidence is high that surface pressure intensifies from Wednesday night through the day on Thursday as it tracks from the middle Mississippi River region into the upper Midwest/Lake Superior region. The associated cold front will then traverse the local forecast area during the day on Thursday providing likely chances for rain showers and blustery conditions. Currently, the best chance for rain showers enters the area from the west during the late morning hours on Thursday with the best chances exiting to the east Friday morning. Rainfall amounts do not appear to be overly concerning at this time with 0.10 to 0.25 inches falling over the area. Blustery conditions are also expected on Thursday with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph expected. While warm air advection wind gusts are frequently overdone on global models, an intensifying low pressure and tightening pressure gradient should lead to frequent gusts between 25-30 mph and occasional gusts between 30-40 mph. Following the passage of the cold front, broad upper level trough and surface low pressure will continue to influence regional weather for Friday and into the weekend. While specific details are of low confidence, modest confidence can be given toward a couple broad weather impacts. One of those is the likelihood for below normal temperatures. The other is for occasional chances for rain/snow showers. Precipitation and ptype chances will likely be dependent on additional forcing from shortwave features embedded within the flow as well as near surface thermal profiles. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... River valley FG has dissipated, leaving skies clear except for some cirrus streaming through the region from time to time. Will again see some river valley BR/FG at KLUK, although setup is not /quite/ as ideal as has been the case for the past several mornings. This being said, expect to still see IFR/LIFR VSBYs develop for the site between 07-14z before once again improving by mid-morning. Very light WSW sfc flow will again trend calm for the overnight. May see the wind stay up at 3-5 kts a bit more toward WC OH. Pressure gradient increases subtly on Monday, allowing for SW winds of 7-9 kts late in the period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...KC