359 FXUS62 KILM 072004 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 304 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Conditions will improve through early week as strong low pressure offshore pulls away, with lingering coastal flooding. A warm up will occur into mid-week ahead of an approaching frontal system, that will arrive into the area late week. Temperatures are expected to cool down next weekend as a cold front sweeps off the coast, with good rain chances Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Late visible pictures show noticeably thinning cloud trends, with rapid drying expected throughout the column into evening on north wind trajectories. A thin layer of low level moisture will become trapped overnight and nearly saturated at a few thousand feet and cooling tonight may form a shallow cloud deck into early Monday, with drying winning-out before or around daybreak to a clear sky, wind chills in the 30s at sunrise. Dewpoints to drop and winds to ease overnight, but winds will pick back up with diurnal mixing Monday, with gusts to 25 mph over many spots through morning. Without wind in the boundary layer it would be a lot colder, but expect upper 30s over inland NE SC and low to mid 40s elsewhere where synoptic gradient is a little tighter. Under sunshine Monday, the upper 60s will feel quite pleasant to many, after an unseasonable cool, grey, and windy weekend. The High Surf Advisories will likely be allowed to expire this evening over NE SC beaches, a little longer in duration for the SE NC coast. Our criteria for High Surf is 6 foot breakers or higher in the surf zone. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Outside of scattered high clouds Wednesday, clear and dry conditions expected for the short term period due to surface high pressure and mid level ridging. Aloft, zonal flow sets up across the Carolinas with a trough moving across the Mississippi Valley Wednesday night. High temps will run above normal near 75 degrees, with low temps in the mid to upper 40s. Lingering minor coastal flooding possible along local beaches and downtown ILM Tuesday AM high tide. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure slides offshore Thursday setting up southerly flow in the low to mid levels and increase in moisture. Well above normal temps continue Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s and low temps Thursday night in the upper 50s. A pair of cold fronts are forecasted to move across the area late week into the weekend. The first passes through late Friday accompanied by increased rain chances and decrease in low level humidity. Rain chances linger through Saturday before a stronger front moves across late Saturday followed by a wind shift and drying throughout air column. Above normal temps Friday will cool down through the weekend behind the fronts, with below normal temps forecasted for Sunday. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR through the forecast period. Gusty north winds will continue into the evening hours as low pressure offshore slowly pulls off to the northeast. Skies becoming scattered this evening. Continued northerly flow on Monday, but not as gusty. Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to dominate Sun evening through Wed with continued active NNW-NNE winds late Sun night, with some gusts, up to 15-20 kt, occurring daylight Mon. && .MARINE... Through Monday Night...Powerful coastal low to prolong Gales into evening, with 35 kt noted inshore, and frequent gusts to 40 kt at outer buoy 41013 presently. However, abatement is still expected as the low drifts to the ENE. Gales will be followed by advisory conditions for a couple days as the low is sluggish to exit, perhaps sometimes Tuesday the advisories will be lowered. The atmosphere is drying out so no TSTMs to contend with. NE waves will slowly subside with wave periods around 12 seconds this forecast period, wave heights dropping to 5-8 feet into Monday, thus advisories will be needed tomorrow. Tuesday through Friday...Conditions look to finally improve to sub-SCA criteria Tuesday after a week's worth of headlines, as low pressure well offshore continues to move further away and high pressure builds over the Carolinas. North winds around 10-15 kts gust 15-20 kts early Tuesday will continue to weaken throughout the day, along with relaxing of 3-5 ft seas from the morning. Winds 10 kts of less forecasted for Tuesday evening through Wednesday night, first out of the north before veering to easterly late Wednesday. Seas 2-4 ft Tuesday evening lower to 2-3 ft by late Wednesday. High pressure slides offshore Thursday allowing return flow around 10 kts to develop. A cold front approaches late Friday increasing southerly winds to 10-15 kts. 2-3 ft seas Thursday increase slightly to 2-4 ft Friday. Seas predominantly NE swell from departing low with ESE wind waves mixing in beginning late Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Secondary high tide will produce minor tidal flooding tonight, but nothing like we saw this morning, especially NE SC. The minor tidal flooding should remain confined to the SE NC coast and lower Cape Fear River. The Monday morning high tide will bring greater tidal flooding, but short of what we saw today. Tidal flooding should persist through about Tuesday before waning, between the new and full moon phase. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for NCZ107. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ254-256. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...08 SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...43 MARINE...MJC/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJC