397 FXUS61 KBGM 071954 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 254 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Extended period of dry weather continues with high pressure in control of things. Though a couple weak disturbance will pass through the area during midweek, with some clouds and perhaps a spotty shower Tuesday night, but temperatures will remain above average. A low pressure system && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 245 PM Update... Quiet dry weather continues courtesy of high pressure. Surface high pressure was already keeping things quiet, but now ridging aloft is also increasing becoming involved to allow temperatures to moderate warmer. We started off mostly 20s-mid 30s this morning, even a couple spots at 19 degrees in Pike County PA and Delaware County NY. However, full sunshine has warmed up our area well into the 50s; even 60 degrees at Syracuse which is 8 degrees above average. We will add a few more degrees to that Monday, with highs of mid 50s-mid 60s; highest in the Finger Lakes and lower elevations west of I-81. A southern vestige of a weak wave passing from Quebec into New England, will briefly sneak some clouds in late tonight into early Monday mainly north of the New York Thruway, but otherwise we have another mostly clear night of radiational cooling ahead. While not quite as cold as last night, upper 20s-mid 30s are still anticipated which will again put frost on many windshields. After the warmer day Monday, another approaching weak wave will start to to bring in a few clouds towards dawn especially in Central New York, while also increasing southwesterly flow just off the surface. This will result in milder lows of lower 30s-lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 345 PM Update... Tuesday will be pleasant as high pressure will still be overhead. Partly sunny skies and temperatures above normal are expected. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The NAM does have a weak feature and low level moisture moving into the region Tuesday afternoon, which is an outlier but something to watch in upcoming days as cloud cover could be higher than expected which would also result in slightly cooler temps. The upper level ridge begins to move eastward throughout the day, and a weak cold front approaches the area Tuesday night. With some low- and mid-level moisture present, this cold front could trigger some light rain showers early Wednesday morning. There does appear to be some better agreement between models as the GFS now brings showers farther south and into our region. Based on this, PoPs were bumped up and extended farther south, stopping just short of the Twin Tiers. PoPs were limited to slight chance. With a late arrival, the overnight lows will remain fairly mild as upper 30s to low 40s are expected. Some lingering showers could be possible after sunrise on Wednesday but confidence was too low to include any PoPs at this time. Cooler air will move in behind the front, but certainly no where as cold as it could be this time of year. The highs on Wednesday will be limited to the 50s with some isolated valley locations reaching 60. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region by the afternoon, helping clear the skies. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s for most. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 345 PM Update... A warm front passes through Thursday morning resulting in warmer temps and southwest flow that will bring marine moisture inland, increasing cloud cover. A strong low pressure will be present over the Central US, and a cold front associated with this system will move into the region from the west late Thursday night and into early Friday morning. The GFS and ECMWF are beginning to have some agreement on the starting time of precip while the CMC is still the slower solution. Friday morning, a low splits off from the main low. This low moves up into the northern Great Lakes as the original low remains in the Central US. The cold front will stay ahead of this new low, bringing showers across the region Friday. The models are trending faster with the passing of this system, but the National Blend of Models (NBM) was lagging behind this trend. NBM was used as a starting base for PoPs on Friday but then they were reduced using a little bit of what was in the previous forecast update and manual adjustments to get a solution closer to the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Chance PoPs remain for Saturday through Saturday night as there is some disagreement on how long the rain showers stick around. Models are also showing a deepening trough that will bring some cooler air into the region but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the overall timing and strength of that feature. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR with dry high pressure remaining in charge, yet with one small caveat. As has been the case the last few mornings, clear sky and cold conditions will likely mean patchy shallow valley fog again late tonight at KELM, with visibility bouncing between 09Z-13Z Monday. Winds generally very light southwest or variable under 5 knots. Outlook... Monday afternoon through Monday night...VFR. Tuesday through early Wednesday...Generally dry, but a shallow cloud deck will work its way in behind a lead disturbance and then a weak cold front with some ceiling restrictions. Midday Wednesday through Thursday...Partly sunny and mainly VFR expected. South winds 10-20 kts Thursday; gusty at times. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...MDP