929 FXUS61 KBGM 071803 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 103 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Extended period of dry and mostly clear weather continues with high pressure in control. A warming trend continues today and into the coming work week, with temperatures climbing well above average. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1245 PM Update... Very nice Sunday in progress; forecast going as expected. Even the outer rim of very thin high cirrus, from a distant coastal system, is managing to stay southeast of the area. Enjoy the sun, but remember, it will set before 5 PM courtesy of the change to daylight saving time. Previous discussion... Patchy fog is apparent across portions of the Delaware and Susquehanna basins, though notably not to the extent we've seen over the past several nights. 0Z soundings showed slightly more robust southwesterly boundary layer flow, and if the smattering of stations reporting light south/southwesterly winds are any indications, perhaps we didn't totally decouple. Otherwise, temperatures are starting off in the 20s to lower 30s, as expected. Any fog mixes out after sunrise, and another sunny and quiet day is expected with high pressure sprawled out over the region. Light southerly winds and warm air advection aloft will help us turn a few degrees warmer than on Saturday. Expecting highs in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area. The upper ridge axis shifts directly over us overnight. A shortwave passing through southern Ontario and a brief shift to west/northwest flow aloft may allow some clouds to drift into our area, but skies remain otherwise mostly clear. Temperatures continue to warm aloft, up to 7-8C at 850mb, resulting in a strong low level inversion. This in turn will lead to a so a strong low level inversion pretty large range in overnight lows, with the valleys falling again into the 30s and upper 20s, and the higher elevations in the mid and even upper 30s. The Finger Lakes and Ontario lake plain will remain mild, also in the mid/upper 30s. The warming trend continues into Monday. Any clouds from the overnight disturbance move out, with another sunny day and highs reaching well above average, into the upper 50s across much of the area and the lower 60s in the typically warmer valleys and urban spots. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 425 AM Update... Surface high pressure axis will still extend across the Appalachians Monday night. Conditions will again be ideal for radiational cooling, and while overnight lows will be much warmer than we're seeing presently, we kept the valleys a few degrees cooler than guidance. Warm advection will bring temperatures well above normal on Tuesday as the surface high drifts east of the area, and south to southwest flow prevails. Highs in the 60s will be common, especially in lower elevations. A weak disturbance will pass by well to our north on Tuesday, dragging a weak cold front across the area Tuesday night. Max temps will drop by about 5 degrees Wednesday, though precip chances look very low to nil with this system. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 425 AM Update... A more unsettled pattern will develop later in the week. High pressure behind the weak cold front will quickly move east into Quebec and Maine, with a maritime trajectory setting up with southeasterly flow on Thursday. Expect increasing clouds from the south and southeast, especially across the Catskills and Poconos. Precip chances will increase Thursday night as strong low pressure moves into the western Great Lakes. The system will be strongly occluded, with the cold front running well ahead of the surface low, reaching western NY by Friday morning while the parent low is still over Lake Superior. Band of precip could be locally heavy given deep moisture tap from the south. Models have trended towards a faster solution, favoring cooler but largely drier conditions Saturday, with perhaps some scattered lake effect showers. NBM PoPs are lagging the trends, and keeping PoPs too high for too long, as it averages out many model solutions. Trended PoPs lower than the NBM for Saturday, and while not completely dry, they're more representative of a northwest flow. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR with dry high pressure remaining in charge, yet with one small caveat. As has been the case the last few mornings, clear sky and cold conditions will likely mean patchy shallow valley fog again late tonight at KELM, with visibility bouncing between 09Z-13Z Monday. Winds generally very light southwest or variable under 5 knots. Outlook... Monday afternoon through Monday night...VFR. Tuesday through early Wednesday...Generally dry, but a shallow cloud deck will work its way in behind a lead disturbance and then a weak cold front with some ceiling restrictions. Midday Wednesday through Thursday...Partly sunny and mainly VFR expected. South winds 10-20 kts Thursday; gusty at times. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HLC NEAR TERM...HLC/MDP SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...MDP