979 FXUS65 KBOU 071740 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1040 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 Clouds have eroded this morning and sunny skies will be the theme for the rest of the day today. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s already and we're on our way to another potential record high in Denver. Temperatures are maybe a degree cooler than this time yesterday, meaning we should have no problems getting back into the upper 70s. Elsewhere, very dry conditions are already starting to develop, with relative humidities below 15% across most of the plains and lower Foothills. Continued drying is likely through the afternoon, with Red Flag conditions developing across South Park due to the stronger winds forecast there. Elevated fire danger is expected for the rest of the forecast area. A few minor adjustments were made to the temperature, wind, and dew point/humidity grids, but otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 113 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 A dry southwesterly flow aloft will be over the region today resulting in another round of unseasonably warm weather. Record high temperatures are again possible. The high temperature in Denver for this date in 78, so expect at least a tie today. The fire danger will remain high across the region due to very low relative humidity this afternoon, reference the fire weather discussion below for those details. Overall, there should be less wind across the plains, with stronger winds confined to the elevated terrain. Dry again tonight, with a cold front expected to bring some relief as it pushes into the northeast plains and urban corridor Monday morning around 5 am. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 113 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 A weak cold front will push across the plains Monday morning, resulting in cooler (but still at or slightly above normal) temperatures for Monday. Highs should still be able to make it into the upper 50s or lower 60s over the plains. Clouds should gradually increase during the day, but the risk of any precipitation appears quite limited. ECMWF seems a little more aggressive with the moisture, but we're not seeing any significant forcing so maybe just a couple light snow showers at best in the northern mountains and isolated sprinkles/very light rain showers over the northeastern plains by evening. We'll then see some short wave ridging and drying for later Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Tuesday, especially from Denver south/east with a little downslope component off the Palmer Divide. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, there has been some change to model solutions, which would lead to more snow accumulation in the mountains. The ensembles are now pointing toward more available moisture streaming off the Pacific, with 700-500 mb specific humidity increasing to around 3 g/kg. In addition, it appears we'll be getting into the left exit region of the upper level jet Tuesday night into early Wednesday, which will lend itself to upward vertical motion. The orographic component will also be strengthening, with 30-40 knots of west/northwest flow impinging on the mountains. Thus, as long as the moisture and stability profile remain consistent over the next couple days, we could be looking at several inches of snow and blowing snow in the northern Colorado mountains, and possible Winter Weather Advisories. On the plains, we'll have a chance of rain showers starting Tuesday night, possibly mixed with a little snow into Wednesday night. However, by then, we'll probably be settling into a more subsident and stronger downslope regime. In fact, we'll probably see some gusty downslope winds develop Wednesday afternoon already given the signal in the QG fields. Wednesday will likely end up being a colder and pretty windy day across the forecast area. Snow showers should linger in the high country Thursday, and then probably end by Friday as long as the upper trough moves sufficiently eastward. There is pretty decent agreement on the ensembles that we'll be heading back to gradual ridging and warming for next weekend, with a return of dry conditions. The odds of measurable snow in Denver are quite low through at least the middle of next week. That would put us in line for at least the top 3 of the latest first measurable snowfalls. Those currently sit at November 17th, 2016, November 19th, 1931, and November 21st, 1934. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1030 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will shift to the north and northeast this afternoon but will be fairly light. Drainage winds are expected overnight. A cold front will shift winds back to the north tomorrow morning with light northeasterlies tomorrow afternoon. No ceiling or visibility impacts are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 113 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 A Red Flag Warning is in effect for South Park this afternoon. Near- critical to critical fire danger is expected again this afternoon with well above normal temperatures. Daytime humidity values will again drop into 10-15 percent range for the plains, mountain valleys and foothills. The winds look to be a little weaker across much of our forecast area, but elevated fire danger is expected this afternoon over the higher terrain. Confidence is highest in South Park that the wind will be strong enough for Red Flag conditions. Similar conditions will be possible for the valleys of Jackson and Grand counties, but with slightly less wind and shorter duration. It will be quite breezy in South Park and the far southern foothills again on Monday, but humidity levels will be slightly improved so critical fire thresholds will not be met. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ214. && $$ UPDATE...Hiris SHORT TERM...Cooper LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Hiris FIRE WEATHER...Cooper/Barjenbruch