026 FXUS61 KILN 071723 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1223 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week. This will lead to dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The next chance of rain will arrive on Thursday before cooler air filters back into the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... River valley fog, especially along the OH Rvr, has been slow to burn off this morning, but once it does, anticipate mainly clear skies area-wide for the remainder of the near term period. Will see some cirrus filter in from the west throughout the day, but the abundant sunshine and light WSW sfc flow will allow for temps to near 60 degrees area-wide by the middle of the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The surface high will shift very slowly southeast tonight into Monday. With a dry airmass still in place, skies will remain mostly clear through the short term period. We will also continue to slowly moderate with highs on Monday mainly in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The H5 ridge influencing our weather will dampen Monday night. By Tuesday, we will see flow aloft become more quasi-zonal. Deep layer southwesterly flow will still enable temperatures to trend above seasonal normals on Tuesday in the middle to upper 60s. We will begin to observe increased cloud coverage throughout the day Tuesday - mainly in the middle and upper-levels. This is ahead of a shortwave trough that will traverse the Upper Midwest region Tuesday night. The bulk of the precipitation will remain north of our counties towards the Great Lakes and northern OH region, but some of our northern counties may observe light rain overnight. Have begun to introduce a 20% PoP for our west-central Ohio counties. The shortwave feature quickly propagates east of our CWA Wednesday, allowing for a ridge to briefly build back in for the day. Partly cloudy skies are still expected during the day, but there should be plenty of breaks in the clouds to allow sunshine to seep through - helping temperatures to reach the middle 60s once again. A fairly robust H5 trough stretched across the Central Plains will begin to traverse the Midwest region Wednesday night. This will inevitably increase chances for rain from the west Wednesday night, with the best coverage in rain expected Thursday and Thursday night as of now. This trough feature becomes further amplified in the GFS/Euro/CMC models as we head into the start of the next weekend - digging into the southern US near the Gulf. This will provide a blast of cooler air out of Canada Friday into Saturday. With an upper low lagging behind the primary surface low, rain and even some snow (primarily overnight when temperatures drop low enough) linger into the weekend. Accumulating snow seems unlikely at this time, but confidence is high in a sharp cooldown, with high temperatures trending towards the lower to middle 40s on Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... River valley FG has dissipated, leaving skies clear except for some cirrus streaming through the region from time to time. Will again see some river valley BR/FG at KLUK, although setup is not /quite/ as ideal as has been the case for the past several mornings. This being said, expect to still see IFR/LIFR VSBYs develop for the site between 07-14z before once again improving by mid-morning. Very light WSW sfc flow will again trend calm for the overnight. May see the wind stay up at 3-5 kts a bit more toward WC OH. Pressure gradient increases subtly on Monday, allowing for SW winds of 7-9 kts late in the period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...KC/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...KC