103 
FXUS61 KPBZ 071657
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1157 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and warming temperature can be expected under high
pressure for the first half of the new week. Precipitation is
expected to return with a late week cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Eastern CONUS ridging will remain dominant with warming temperature
and light wind. Given the discrepancy pattern over the last few days
and SKC overnight, adjusted minimum temperature down manually a 
couple of degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure should remain across much of the Eastern CONUS through
Tuesday, as a high amplitude ridge bordered by the polar jet remains
aloft. This should continue to result in dry weather and mostly 
clear skies, with gradually warming temperatures. 

A sfc cold front undergoing frontolysis is expected to cross the 
Great lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region Tuesday night as the upper ridge
weakens and shifts SE. An overall lack of upper level support with 
high pressure quickly developing upstream will inhibit precipitation 
chance and leave cloudy skies as the most likely consequence.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long range model ensembles indicate that an occluding low pressure
system will propagate through the northern Great Lakes corridor,
allowing for a cold frontal passage through the Ohio Valley late next
week. 

Model ensembles also indicate it is possible that another trough has
the potential to develop upstream shortly after, and could bring a 
plume of sufficiently cold air to provide both rain and snow mix 
chance. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR and light wind will continue through the TAF period as high 
pressure remains in control. 

.Outlook...
General restrictions due to precipitation may return by Thursday with
the next low pressure system.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$