010 FXUS64 KLCH 071614 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1014 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 .DISCUSSION... With the erosion of early morning fog now nearly complete, (just one little patch left in SE TX around Village Mills which should be gone within the next half hour or so) plenty of sun is on tap today with temperatures warming nicely into the upper 60s to around 70. Updated products were sent earlier for the expiration of the dense fog advisory, and with the forecast on track, there is no need for any additional updates at this time. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021/ UPDATE... As was fully expected around AFD time earlier, more sfc obs have shown visibilities fall to below 1/2SM at times (quite a few have gotten there and stayed there for the duration)...thus a Dense Fog Advisory was issued for the entire forecast area through 15z/09L. 25 AVIATION... VLIFR conditions will remain possible through mid-morning before rapid improvement commences with the onset of daytime heating. Thereafter with a dry column per forecast soundings, VFR/clear conditions will persist into tonight with light winds continuing thanks to sfc high pressure sitting nearly overhead. Could see a return of the fog after midnight tonight...for now, have just capped conditions at MVFR. 25 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021/ SHORT TERM [Sunday through Tuesday night]... Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure centered pretty much overhead. Water vapor imagery shows the area lingering in the nwrly flow aloft behind a significant storm system centered just off the sern CONUS coast. KLCH 00z sounding showed significant dry air, especially above 900 mb, within a very stable airmass. The combo of all this has led to patchy fog, sometimes dense, across the bulk of the forecast area. GOES-E nighttime fog imagery shows the fog gradually spreading and becoming deeper with time, which corroborates well with the increasing number of sfc obs indicating fog over the last couple of hours. Otherwise, a crystal clear and cool night ongoing with temps ranging from the upper 30s nrn 1/2 to the mid 40s closer to the coast. In the near-term, will continue to monitor sfc obs for the need for a Dense Fog Advisory over the next few hours. Given the increasing number of obs sites indicate visibilities aob criteria and satellite imagery showing the boundary layer stratus spreading, am generally expecting to be issuing one at some point prior to sunrise. Wherever the fog develops, conditions should improve by mid-morning as commencing daytime heating helps burn off the fog. Forecast models are in agreement this morning with a continued benign weather pattern expected during the early portion of the forecast period. Forecast soundings continue to indicate minimal moisture to work with as the sfc high only gradually slips ewd and ridging develops aloft. Temps are progged to remain sub-seasonal, although warming is expected by the end of the short term as the sfc high pushes east, allowing a more onshore low-level flow to develop. With the pattern staying relatively static, suspect we'll continue to see late night fog issues...have included mentions again for tonight. 25 LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]... At the start of the long term period, high pressure at both the surface and aloft will be situated over the eastern half of the country, while an area of deepening low pressure will be organizing out west. With the forecast area between these two features, onshore flow will be well established by early Wednesday resulting in a warming/moistening trend through the mid-week. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s both Wednesday and Thursday, amid partly to mostly cloudy skies. On Thursday, low pressure to our west will continue to deepen while shifting into the Plains/Midwest and eventually sending a cold front into the region. Frontal passage is expected to occur later in the day on Thursday, so temperatures will likely have enough time to warm up before the warming/moistening trend comes to an end with fropa. At this time, POPs look to be around 50% at best with the frontal passage, and thunderstorm chances look minimal. Convection should taper off through the evening on Thursday, as winds shift to the northwest and north and bring cooler and drier air into the region. Friday into the weekend looks like another round of very pleasant fall weather with afternoon highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s, amid clear skies and modest northerly flow. 17 MARINE... No headlines are expected on the CWF during the early portion of the forecast period with sfc high pressure lingering close by. As we get closer to mid-week and the high pushes ewd, the gradient is expected to tighten as low pressure deepens over the Plains, and thus caution headlines look likely, especially over the wrn waters. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 42 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 69 46 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 70 46 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 70 47 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$