699 FXUS64 KSHV 071513 AAB AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 913 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 .UPDATE... Visibilities are rapidly improving this morning, but surface observations and latest IR satellite imagery still indicate some areas of patchy dense fog are still ongoing. However, with the rate of improvement seen in sat loops, any remaining fog should mixed out within the next hour or two. Therefore, the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire. Otherwise, sunny skies are expected across the area. Temperatures are already warming quickly, especially in areas that did not experience dense fog overnight. Some minor updates were made to the Sky and Weather grids in relation to the fog, but the remainder of the grids were left intact. Updated text products have been sent. CN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 542 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021/ UPDATE... Zone update just sent for the addition of the Dense FG Adv. in effect until 15Z this morning for portions of Lower E TX, all of N LA, and extreme Srn AR. The latest satellite imagery combined with sfc obs and traffic cams indicate that the FG has become widespread and dense across these areas, with locations within the Advisory area not seeing much FG now expected to have it advected in by/shortly after daybreak. Still expecting the FG to slowly lift through mid and late morning. No other changes were needed to the forecast attm. 15 AVIATION... Areas of dense FG has developed and continues to gradually spread ENE across portions of Lower E TX/much of N LA, and extreme Srn AR this morning, and will primarily affect the SHV/MLU/LFK/ELD terminals through mid-morning before lifting. Have also tempoed patchy FG into GGG as well although any reduced vsbys here should be brief. Once the FG lifts, VFR conditions will continue through much of the remainder of the 12Z TAF period, as SKC will prevail. Can't rule out patchy FG developing late over portions of NCntrl LA and Deep E TX, primarily affecting MLU. Winds will become S around 5kts today across E TX/extreme SW AR/NW LA, except remain Lt/Vrb elsewhere. Winds will become Lt/Vrb across much of the region after 00Z. /15/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday/ The morning sfc analysis indicates ridging extending from SE TX NE through the heart of the Four State Region NE through the Mid South and into the OH Valley. Areas of FG have developed near the periphery of the sfc ridge axis across much of N LA and into areas of Deep E TX, with some of this FG now thick enough to be detected on the 12.3-10.35um satellite imagery. Traffic cams in the MLU area depict that the FG is patchy thus far, although confidence is increasing that the FG will thicken and continue expanding a bit to the NW into portions of Lower E TX and possibly Srn AR. There is still some uncertainties as to how much more the FG will expand and how dense it will be, and thus have maintained FG mention through mid-morning in the forecast for these areas, but have held off for now on a Dense FG Advisory until trends and areas can be better delineated. The sfc ridge will begin to drift E of the region into the MS Valley this afternoon, with a light Srly low level flow commencing. Once the FG lifts, strong insolation and this light Srly flow will result in a continued warming trend, with afternoon temps climbing back to near daily norms. What little wind we have later today will decouple by sunset, resulting in another cool night with good radiational cooling. Still can't rule out at least the potential for patchy FG developing late tonight near the periphery of the sfc ridge axis, mainly across NCntrl LA into Deep E TX, with any FG again burning off by mid- morning Monday. Upper ridging centered over the region this morning will begin to expand E into the Lower MS Valley Monday, with the warming trend continuing given the strong insolation and deepening Srly winds on the backside of the departing low level ridge axis. Have trended max temps 1-3 degrees above the NBM, which has strangely trended cooler even with the Srly winds. However, given the very dry air mass in place across the region and Nrn Gulf, it will still take some time for the low level moisture to advect back NNE into the region, at least not until Tuesday morning across ECntrl TX/Srn OK, and over the remainder of the region Wednesday. 15 LONG TERM.../Monday Night through Saturday Night/ An upper level ridge axis will continue to shift east of the region on Monday night as southerly flow deepens even further. As a result, expect warm air advection to persist into mid week with temperatures warming into the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly even hedging toward to the lower 80s over our SW zones in east Texas on Wednesday ahead of our next cold front, which is progged to enter the Southern Plains on Wednesday afternoon. By this time, a shortwave trough will also be pivoting out of the Rockies and will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front begins to enter our NW zones late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With the cold front arriving overnight and into the early morning hours, very little instability will be available although mid-level lapse rates will be fairly stout so elevated thunderstorms will be a good possibility as the sfc cold front gradually advances SE across the region through the remainder of the day on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage with additional heating throughout the day before the cold front eventually exits the region late Thursday into Thursday night. In wake of the cold front, noticeably cooler and drier air will be advecting into the region as the parent longwave trough digs well to the south toward the Gulf coast by late week into the weekend. This will result in below normal temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period with highs in the 50s and 60s while lows drop back into the 30s and 40s once again. 19 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 43 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 69 40 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 70 38 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 69 42 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 68 37 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 73 47 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 72 44 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 73 42 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 09/24