131 FXUS63 KFGF 071258 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 658 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 658 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Adjusted cloud cover a bit for a few breaks in the mid and high deck across our northwestern counties. Everything else seems on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Temperatures and rain chances across our southern counties on Monday will be the main challenges for the period. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue into the start of the week. A shortwave moving through Saskatchewan and Manitoba today will help push a cold frontal boundary through. Some of the high res models have some indication of rain developing near the front later today, however, all the moisture is in the mid levels and solutions that have any QPF reaching the ground are few and far between. Think that most of the activity will be virga and clouds, and along with the cool air advection kicking in should keep highs today a bit cooler in the low 50s in our northern tier. Further south, there should be enough warming ahead of the frontal passage to still get into the low 60s across portions of southeastern ND and west central MN. Tonight, cool air advection continues as surface high pressure settles over the Northern Plains. Cloud cover and the very warm air mass in place will keep lows around the freezing mark and above seasonal averages, however. Temps will remain above average in the upper 40s to low 50s into Monday as southwesterly flow aloft continues, although a weak shortwave approaching the ND/SD border will bring some clouds and a chance for some light rain in that area. Still not a lot of moisture to work with, but mid level frontogenesis along with the synoptic forcing from the shortwave will produce a chance for some rain to reach the ground south of the I-94 corridor Monday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Impacts across the extended period are dependent upon the track of a deep H5 low that is expected to develop by mid-week. Temperatures will be falling through the period as cooler air is pulled down out of Canada during the passage of the aforementioned H5 low. Impacts could range from minimally impactful, in the case that we see a longer exposure to higher temperatures and rain, to moderately impactful in the case where cooler temperatures change rain over to snow a bit sooner. Monday night through Tuesday night, quiet weather prevails across much of the region with lows in the upper 20s and highs in the 40s to low 50s. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon in advance of the mid-week system. Precipitation chances increase Tuesday night for the Devils Lake region, with a mix of rain and snow possible after midnight. For Wednesday, PoPs continue to increase across the area through the morning, with a rain/snow mix for areas north of Highway 2 and rain to the south. By midday, all areas of the CWA should be seeing rain as temperatures climb into the 40s due to warm air advection out of the southeast. As the low passes eastward, winds will shift and bring down much cooler air out of the northwest heading into the evening and overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday morning. This is where uncertainty still remains regarding how quickly this system moves eastward. Rain is expected to change over to snow from northwest to southeast as we head into Thursday morning, with most areas seeing either snow or a rain/snow mix by midday. Some areas may change back to rain during the afternoon, however, temperatures will generally be falling throughout the day, thus any change in timing or track could change this significantly. As for accumulations, snow will struggle to accumulate at first, with totals heavily dependent upon longer exposure to higher snowfall rates. The area most likely to see higher impacts will be the northern Red River Valley, eastward into northwestern Minnesota given the current track. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 542 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 VFR conditions throughout the period with extensive high clouds. Winds will be the main concern as a weak cold front moves through the area. Winds in the 5 to 10 kt range will shift to the northwest behind the front, which has already moved through KDVL and will go through the other ND sites later this morning. Winds will shift back towards a more westerly direction by the end of the period, but speeds will remain below 10 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...Lynch AVIATION...JR