191 FXUS61 KRNK 071151 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 651 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure was along the southeast Atlantic coast, while high pressure extended from New England to Texas. The large area of high pressure is forecast to expand to the south and east resulting in a period of warming and drying. After today, temperatures will swing to the positive side of normal with much warmer weather for Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Sunday... Fair weather to finish off the weekend. Dry conditions to prevail today as high pressure builds in from the north. Still looking at a relatively cool northerly breeze as low pressure spins off the southeast Atlantic coast, the pressure gradient producing a stiff northerly breeze at times especially over the piedmont. After today, the low is expected to move far enough offshore to allow winds to subside and not be as chilly. The clouds that are over the area will also gradually clear. Temperatures this afternoon will make a run for the 50s in the mountains and lower 60s in the foothills and piedmont...2-3 degrees shy of normal, but still a nice finish to what started as a cold frosty weekend. That said, still looking at readings back into the 30s tonight promoting another round of frost before the bigger warm-up takes place Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Sunday... Dry and milder heading into Mid-week. Surface high pressure will remain across the Mid Atlantic region into Tuesday. The upper ridge will build eastward into Tuesday afternoon. A weak disturbances moving through the Great Lakes region will flatten the upper ridge Tuesday night. All the deep moisture and energy with this feature will remain to our north. However, for our area, there will be an increase in mid to high level clouds Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. temperatures will moderate quickly as 850mb temperatures steadily climb, and subsidence increases as the center of the ridge builds overhead. Look for temperatures average ten degrees above normal by Tuesday. Confidence is high in the Short Term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM EST Sunday... Next cold frontal passage set to arrive late next week. On Wednesday, the shortwave trough exiting east, with the high pressure ridge rebounding over the area. As we progress Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper level low pressure center and its potentially highly amplified trough axis will be heading eastward into the Mississippi River Valley region. In advance of this system, low level winds across our region will be south or southwest. This flow will advect moisture into our region with the potential for showers in the west. High temperatures will trend cooler on Thursday because of the increase cloud cover. From Thursday night through Saturday, models agree on the upper trough and its associated cold front moving through our region. There remains difference in the solutions on timing of the frontal boundary and its moisture. Winds will increase ahead and along the frontal boundary. The southeast flow in advance of the front may be strong across southwest parts of the forecast area. Likewise, northwest winds on the backside of the front may be strong enough to prompt winds within advisory levels in areas along and near the crest of the Blue Ridge. Neither scenario is of high confidence currently, but is something to monitor model trends. Mild temperatures will continue ahead of the front, then temperatures return to near seasonable levels Post frontal. As the colder air arrives, linger showers may change to or mix with snow showers on Saturday if enough moisture remains in the mountains. Confidence is moderate in the Long Term. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 700 AM EST Sunday... Widespread VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr valid taf period. Aside for some upper level cirrus associated with a storm system near the southeast Atlantic Coast, expecting little or no cloud element of note below 10kft. There are also no visibility concerns. Winds will be primarily from a northerly direction today at 5-10kts, with gusts 15 kts attms. Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR conditions expected Monday through Thursday as high pressure remains in place. Clouds increase Wednesday/Thursday in advance of an approaching front late week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...PM