387 FXUS61 KOKX 071130 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 630 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Northeast through Monday night, then weaken and slide to the south on Tuesday. A cold front will move across from late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, followed by high pressure through Thursday. A storm system may impact the area from Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The latest update to the forecast includes patchy fog/freezing fog for some inland locations early this morning. Fog has been developing over some of the rivers, lakes and reservoirs inland, affecting adjacent areas. Expect bands of cirrus today, which could thicken for a time either late today or this evening when NWP guidance shows better upper level divergence/lift moving across or passing just south of NYC/Long Island. Winds should be on the light side out of the N-NE, perhaps shifting onshore for a time this afternoon along the CT coast and near the south shore of the lower boroughs of NYC. Expect high temps to be close to the high end of the MOS guidance numbers, with mostly mid 50s, perhaps upper 50s in NJ NJ and parts of NYC. High clouds should exit east later tonight, with a return of good radiational cooling conds to the entire CWA. Only parts of the CWA unaffected by freeze conds are Hudson NJ, NYC, and S Nassau, which is perfectly in line with frost/freeze climatology. Frost advy once again issued for S Nassau as low temps in mid/upper 30s, dewpoints in the lower 30s, and light winds there once again favor frost formation. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As heights rise aloft and sfc ridging holds, expect a warming trend early this week under mostly clear skies. High temps should reach the upper 50s/lower 60s on Mon, then the mid/upper 60s on Tue as the high shifts south and low level WAA ensues on a W to WSW flow. Temps Mon night will still be cool enough for patchy frost well inland, with mid/upper 30s there, ranging up to the 40s along the immediate S coast of CT and across most of Long Island and the NYC metro area. Lows tue night with continued WAA ahead of a dry cold front entering the area will be in the 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front will be exiting the forecast area Wednesday morning, with limited moisture and no showers expected. High temperatures will still manage to reach the 60s across the area in spite of the passage of the front. High pressure keeps us dry for Thursday as well with above normal high temperatures. Our next chance of rain will be Thursday night. A highly amplified flow aloft will exist with a deepening trough and closed 500 mb low over the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, Atlantic moisture gets transported our way with a SE flow as high pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes shifts east. Rainfall ahead of an approaching warm front will be possible mainly after midnight. Rain chances otherwise increase through Friday and Friday night as a trailing cold front approaches and passes through. It might not be until some point on Saturday until the front exits east of the forecast area. Additionally, the upper trough axis and jet will still be to our west on Saturday, so the threat of rain continues into the night. Have capped PoP at chance for the time being for this entire event as it's still about 6-7 days away, but it appears the best overall chances of rain would be Friday night. High temperatures will continue to be above normal Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure remains in control. VFR, except FZFG with lowering cigs and reduced vsbys may push into KSWF between 12Z and 13Z this morning. Light winds of less than 10 kt are expected through the TAF period and may end up being light and variable for much of the forecast period for some terminals. Direction otherwise would be mostly N to NE. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Mon-Thursday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Issued SCA for the ocean waters from 7 AM Mon through 7 AM Tue. Ocean seas are running close to a foot above GFSwave and NWP guidance, and this anomaly should persist. Meanwhile, swell from offshore low pressure will continue to build, reaching 5 ft possibly as early as late tonight, but more likely daytime Mon, and persisting into daytime Tue and possibly Tue night. Sub-advisory conditions return to the ocean for Wednesday and Thursday, then winds and seas increase Thursday night ahead of the next storm system. Seas may build up to 5 ft on the ocean before the night is through. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flood advisories and statements remain in effect for the daytime high tide cycle along the shorelines of Lower NY harbor, the south shore back bays of NYC and Nassau County, and SW CT. High astronomical tides due to a recent new moon and increasing E swell will maintain total water levels high enough at high tide to cause isolated to scattered minor coastal flooding in these areas. This threat should continue with the daytime high tide cycle on Monday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ071. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NYZ179. Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Monday for NYZ179. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ074-075-178- 179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/BG NEAR TERM...BG SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JC MARINE...JC/BG HYDROLOGY...JC/BG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...