461 FXUS64 KOUN 071123 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 523 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 158 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 A warm, early November day is expected this afternoon under the influence of increasing SSW low level flow and a mid to upper shortwave ridge passing overhead. Highs will be around 10 F higher than average for most locations. The same can be expected for overnight with the pressure gradient remaining fairly tight across OK, a LLJ developing, and dewpoints climbing back into the upper 40s and low 50s by sunrise. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 158 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 The warm trend will continue into Monday as heights increase behind a subtle shortwave trough. Overnight lows into Tue AM are expected to remain in the mid 50s for most locations with dewpoints doing the same, and increasing cirrostratus (perhaps even low stratus east of I-35) accompanying a mid to upper shortwave trough. A cold front is still expected to stall across northern OK Tue afternoon as the previously mentioned wave moves into the Midwest. A much more substantial trough will dig southeastward over the Rockies throughout Wed. An increase in warm & moist advection will occur overnight ahead of this feature and stratus appears possible at least along and east of I-35 (again very warm overnight lows). By Wed afternoon a lee sfc low is expected to move into KS and OK, and low level moisture will continue to increase across the Southern Plains. The progression of the trough and strongest forcing to our north/nne would suggest the highest PoPs will remain to our east. However, there still could be some moist convection that develops along the cold front into Wed evening depending on the cap. Cooler and drier air will follow for Thu as a upper closed low encompasses the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. It appears freeze chances have increased again late into the week into next weekend, as almost all solutions have trended drier in the boundary layer, higher with sfc pressures, and lower with heights. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 LLWS will be the primary concern for the northern terminals this morning, and again Sunday night for most sites as the LLJ strengthens. Mostly clear skies are expected today with a few high clouds possible later today. && .UPPER AIR... Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 No Upper Air flights are planned. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 74 51 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 76 49 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 49 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 81 49 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 75 50 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 73 45 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...01