871 FXUS63 KAPX 071112 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 612 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High Impact Weather Potential: None. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Weak ridging expected to be positioned across the nation's midsection today with mid-upper level heights slowly rising over northern Michigan. Surface high pressure to remain anchored across the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians through at least tonight. This will continue to promote low-level warm air advection locally with another day of well-above normal temperatures and little in the way of sensible weather. Primary Forecast Concerns: Just how warm daytime temperatures will climb. Broad sub-tropical ridging continues to expand north across the Great Lakes late this weekend with any semblance of cold air bottled well our north across Canada. Southwesterly low-level flow will continue in earnest today on the north side of aformentioned southeast centered surface high pressure...only helping to continue to warm temperatures as H8 temperatures surge to the low teens across the majority of the area this afternoon. While we certainly won't be able to mix to this level (which would support sfc temps in the low 70s), still expecting afternoon highs to push well into the 50s and lower 60s across the area -- a solid 10 to 15 degrees above early November normals that range through the mid-40s. Suppose the only possible blemish to an otherwise tranquil forecast would be cloud cover. Current trends largely support partly to mostly sunny skies today, but could envision some thicker clouds rolling across parts of northwest lower and eastern upper. Depending on timing/coverage/longevity of these clouds could throw a bit of wrench into high temps this afternoon across some areas, but at this point, it's just something that'll need to be monitored as the day progresses. Mainly clear to partly cloud skies anticipated tonight. South- southwest winds should prevent much in the way of extreme radiational cooling with lows expected to bottom out in the upper 30s across the coolest spots to the mid 40s at the shorelines of the big waters. && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High Impact Weather Potential...None. Northern Michigan will be between an area of high pressure over the southeastern CONUS and another weaker one over the northern Great Plains. A weak area of low pressure over Ontario/Quebec with an associated east/west oriented cold front will be over the Great Lakes. This cold front will be fairly moisture starved and shallow, but could produce some drizzle and light rain showers Monday night into Tuesday as a weak surface wave rides up along the front before finally departing to the south and east of the forecast area Tuesday evening. Clouds will also be on the increase late Monday ahead of the approaching front bringing partly cloudy skies to mostly cloudy/overcast with decreasing clouds late Tuesday as the front departs the area and the high pressure over the Great Plains moves to the Great Lakes and builds overhead. Winds will be southwest at the beginning of the period and veer to more northwest to north by Monday evening as said cold front moves into northern Michigan. Winds will remain northwest to north throughout the remainder of this forecast period as the center of the high pressure moving in remains just to our west. Temperatures Monday afternoon will reach into the upper 50s to possibly the low 60s, as Tuesday only reaches into the low to mid 50s behind the departing cold front with cooler air from the north filtering in. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High Impact Weather Potential...None. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The long term period will begin with high pressure and drier air overhead. Models are showing a more progressive pattern beginning to impact the Great Lakes region mid to late work week with the possibility of a developing storm system from the central Great Plains moving in and then colder air filtering in it's wake and possibly developing some lake effect snow for next weekend. Models seem to be fairly consistent on this occurring, but will continue to monitor each day and make any changes deemed necessary. Highs are forecast to be above normal for this time of the year...before reaching back to normal to below normal by the end of the work week and into the next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 612 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Aside from some early morning fog at MBL, VFR expected to prevail with tranquil sensible weather conditions anticipated across northern Michigan through the TAF period as higher pressure continues to build into the region. South-southwest winds will continue to be the rule, occasionally breezy at times -- especially this evening into tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Southwest winds will continue to dominate across the region today through Monday on the north side of high pressure centered to our southeast across the TN Valley. While the majority of time over the next couple of days should feature generally lighter winds, there is a window this evening into Monday morning with the potential for gusts to reach small craft criteria, primarily on Lake Michigan. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Monday for LMZ344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MG SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...MG MARINE...MG