471 FXUS62 KILM 071105 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 605 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure off the U.S. Southeast coast will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding, beach erosion and ocean overwash to the immediate NC and SC Coasts during each high tide cycle into mon. The peak will occur with the high tide cycle later this morning. In addition, periods of rain and gusty northerly winds will make it a raw first part of the day. Pcpn will come to an end from west to east across the Carolinas today along with improvements to the overcast skies. Winds will abate some tonight through Mon with tranquil weather conditions settling in across the Carolinas thru the mid-week period of next week as high pressure builds in. The next rain chances will occur Friday in response to the next frontal system approaching. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Intense Atlantic sfc low continues to churn and burn offshore from the Southeast U.S. Coast. Distance-wise, 170 miles SE of Cape Romain SC or 180 miles SSE of Cape Fear NC. The upper low will dominate the slow movement of the sfc low during the next few days, as it slowly pushes further offshore, and away from the U.S. mainland. A couple models keep this upper and associated sfc low meandering well offshore from the U.S. Southeast thru the mid-week period. It will become more of a maritime influence by then. The pcpn moving onshore attm, will see less coverage as today progresses. Improvements west of the I-95 corridor, both lowered pcpn chances and cloud coverage, will become evident this aftn. Eventually, this drying and improving trend will reach the immediate Carolina Coasts during late this aftn thru this evening. The diurnal range of temps from this mornings lows to todays highs will generally run at 10 degrees or less. The tightened sfc pg will continue to yield breezy and gusty northerly winds through Mon, with an overall diminishing trend to occur especially as the Atlantic low pulls further away. For Mon, will be under the NNE-NW flow aloft as the upper low or opening s/w trof moves further offshore, allowing much drier air at all levels to invade the ILM CWA via various model rh time height series. Max temps to rebound by nearly +10 degrees F from what occurs today under sunny skies. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure pulling away from the area will bring the arrival of high pressure. Slightly breezy overnight as the gradient recovers from several days of 20+ knot wind gusts. Overnight lows still dropping into the lower 40s due to the cold air advection being brought on the NW side of the low. High pressure continues to build in on Tuesday. Mid-level flow attempts to ridge a bit on Tuesday afternoon along with the moderating high pressure air mass. Highs on Tuesday in the lower 70s, slightly above climo. Light winds and clear skies on Tuesday night will allow for good radiational cooling, overnight lows in the lower 40s, mid 40s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Quiet weather continues through Thursday with high pressure still in place. Zonal flow aloft and a moderating air mass keep temperatures slightly above normal. Highs in the mid 70s each afternoon. High pressure slides offshore of the US East coast on Thursday and bring surface flow our of the SE. Mid-level flow also becomes SW ahead of an approaching cold front located over the central US. All of this providing moisture advection into the area as the humidity rises. Low-level moisture will keep overnight lows in the mid or upper 50s. Humid with temperatures above normal on Friday; guidance still showing some variation with the arrival of a front expected at some point during the day. Cold front arrives Friday or Friday night. Upper-trough would show the potential for low pressure to develop along the baroclinic zone offshore on Saturday. Still working through the uncertainty with this front and associated low pressure system offshore at the moment. Regardless, next weekend should be much cooler and potentially unsettled. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some light showers are still possible at the coastal terminals through 15Z as low pressure pulls off to the northeast. Strong northerly winds will continue with gusts to near 30kts along the coast. A few patches of MVFR ceilings are possible this morning with improving conditions this afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to dominate Sun evening through Wed with continued active NNW-NNE winds late Sun night, with some gusts, up to 15-20 kt, occurring daylight Mon. && .MARINE... Through Monday... Due to the slower movement nature of the expansive Atlantic low off the SE U.S. Coast and the continued tightened sfc pg, have extended the Gales for the NC waters thru midnight tonight. SCA will follow immediately as Gales are lowered across the SC waters after 7pm this evening, and for the NC Waters after midnight tonight. A slow diminishing trend to the wind field will continue thru Mon as the Atlantic sfc low slowly fills due to being captured by the upper low. Models meander both sfc and upper lows well offshore from Carolina Coast early next week and thus will continue it's influence, ie a continued tightened sfc pg that will be exhibiting a slow relaxing phase...and hier seas being thrown back toward the Carolina coasts. Monday Night through Thursday... High pressure works into the area late Monday into Tuesday with improving winds and seas behind the exiting low pressure. Small Craft conditions could continue into Tuesday evening as the gradient remains compressed. High pressure builds into the area and dominates through Thursday. Winds become SE on Thursday evening, increasing in strength ahead of a weekend cold front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Moderate level coastal flooding, occurring between 7am and 1pm EST today, will continue to be headlined for the NC and SC Coasts from Surf City to South Santee River for this mornings high tide cycle. Levels will peak this morning due to the influences of the intense and expansive sfc Atlantic low in relatively close proximity, high astronomical tides associated with the Super New Moon cycle and the strong NNE-NE winds helping to pile up water along portions of the immediate Carolina coasts. Ie. The dominate wave having an ENE trajectory to the Carolina Coasts. The Gale winds and just offshore Storm Warning winds will help create large waves that produce large enough surf that will continue the High Surf Advisory across all beaches except for Brunswick County due to it's configuration and the protection of the shallow bathymetry associated with Frying pan Shoals. This wave run-up will likely reach the dune line as well as create some deep escarpments due to the relatively short period wave feature. A few locations may observe ocean overwash, especially if any of the dune structure is undermined. The Lower Cape Fear River will also observe flooding due to tidal influences and will peak at the high end of the Minor category late this morning. This will be followed with a general lower peak for the successive high tide cycles there-after thru Mon. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for SCZ054- 056. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ106- 108-110. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ107. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ254-256. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...TRA/21 AVIATION...43 MARINE...DCH/21 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...