884 FXUS63 KGLD 071101 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 401 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Morning) Issued at 207 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 A broad area of high clouds have developed on the lee side of a ridge using Nighttime Microphysics. Locales that are under the clouds are seeing the lack of radiational cooling affect temperatures (ie: Yuma is at 36 degrees, where as Goodland is at 50 degrees at 08Z). A weak low pressure system develops near the Kansas/Colorado border along with a dryline present just ahead. Behind the dryline, near critical fire weather conditions are expected with RH values ranging from the single digits to the mid teens (along and west of Highway 83 from McCook to Oakley. Winds look to remain variable around 10 knots, but can't rule out isolated instances of 15-20 knot wind gusts where deeper mixing can materialize. The other aspect for Sunday will be warm temperatures which are forecasted to be in the upper 70s to a few locales reaching the mid 80s. A few daily near record to record highs are expected along with KITR and KGLD nearing the monthly record high for November (see Climate Section for more details). Sunday night into Monday, a dry passage of a cold front brings more seasonably temperatures back into the area as low temperatures for the start of the new work week look to be in the low to upper 30s and daytime highs for Monday in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Monday night a weak disturbance moves across NE Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle; forecast soundings indicates some moisture looks to be present within the profile mainly north of Highway 36. The best dynamics and moisture look to be across western/ west central Nebraska but cant rule out sprinkles over the northern counties of the CWA through the night as overnight lows fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s over the area. Tuesday a surface high develops over the northern plains leaving the area dry with high temperatures in the 50s across the area. The cold front that moved through Monday morning looks to stall out over west Texas and retreat back north as warm front late Tuesday evening and into Wednesday morning. As this occurs clouds develop just ahead which will bring low temperatures Wednesday morning above freezing across the entire area. May need to keep an eye on fog potential for this time frame as well. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 A couple of short wave troughs move across the central High Plains region as they circulate through the upper trough moving east of the Rockies and across the High Plains between Wednesday and Wednesday night. The upper trough consolidates into a closed low over the northern Plains on Thursday with the amplifying pattern progressing more slowly as the flow becomes more northerly over the forecast area. This northerly flow will bring another surge of cooler air into the central High Plains and Plains regions in the wake of the exiting low on Thursday and Friday as another couple of short wave troughs across the forecast area in the upper flow. By Friday night and Saturday, the upper trough shifts further east over the eastern U.S. and the upper ridge over the western U.S. expands across the Rockies and western Plains. Individual and blended model solutions have continued to highlight the Wednesday into Wednesday evening time period as the favored period of possible precipitation across the forecast area while diminishing the possibility of precipitation after midnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning due to the slightly more progressive pattern evolution. Areas mainly north of I-70 also continued to be favored as light rain begins to mix and change over to light snow Wednesday evening before the front and surface trough move east of the area. Precipitation will be minimal with little to no accumulations with dry conditions to follow from Thursday through Saturday as the upper ridge expands over the area. High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected on Wednesday with lows in the middle 20s to middle 30s. Highs cool into the upper 40s and lower 50s Thursday and Friday with lows remaining in the 20s. Temperatures will begin a gradual rise Saturday and into the remainder of the weekend with highs climbing back into the lower 60s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 400 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 The 12Z TAF period features VFR conditions for each terminal. An area of high clouds is moving over each terminal currently, and expected to be out of the area around 15Z. Observation sites throughout the night have not indicated any area of this deck of clouds falling below VFR conditions. A weak surface low develops on the KS/CO border during the morning resulting in variable winds throughout the day for each site; winds should remain light at less than 10 knots. A few isolated instances of 15-20 knot gusts are possible if sufficient daytime mixing can occur. After sunset winds will generally be out of the SSE before becoming northerly with the passage of a cold front after 06Z Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 Sunday, near critical fire weather conditions are expected along and west of Highway 83 from McCook to Scott City with RH values near 15% and dropping the further west with single digits over east Colorado. Winds are expected to be variable throughout the day and remain around 10 knots or less a few isolated instances of 15-20 knot gusts are possible wherever deeper mixing is able to occur. If a fire were to start the varying wind directions may cause it to change direction suddenly. Despite the weaker winds fuels, are favorable for fire development across the area and the low RH values increase the risk. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 207 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 Sunday November 7th, 2021 Goodland: Record 82 degrees in 2020 Forecasted temperature 83 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 87 on 11/10/1927 Burlington: Record 82 degrees in 2020 Forecasted temperature 83 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 84 on 11/10/1927 Colby: Record 84 degrees in 1980 Forecasted temperature 81 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 87 on 11/10/1927 Tribune: Record 83 degrees in 2009 Forecasted temperature 80 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 86 on 11/01/2001 Hill City: Record 83 degrees in 2010 Forecasted temperature 82 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 87 on 11/08/2006 Yuma: Record 82 degrees in 2010 Forecasted temperature 79 degrees Monthly record high temperature: 90 on 11/01/1901 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TT LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...TT FIRE WEATHER...TT CLIMATE...TT