446 
FXUS64 KOHX 071022
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
422 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fyi, clock just went back an hour, we are now on central standard 
time. Calm morning, beginning to se some fog form once again. So 
far, its mainly in the Plateau area. Will keep an eye on this and 
adjust grids accordingly. Temperatures are generally at or just 
below freezing eastern third. Elsewhere, mostly mid 30s. 

Another sunny day in store today. Heights will be on the upswing as 
upper ridging moves our way. In fact, the axis will reach our area 
on Monday afternoon. At the surface, high pressure ridging continues 
to extend southwestward from the high located over WV. All in all, 
the dry and clear weather will continue through Tuesday. 

For the near term temps, a warming trend is underway. Highs today 
will reach into the 60s and will then reach into the lower 70s on 
Tuesday. Lows look like 35 to 45. 

In the ext fcst, southerly flow will return ahead of an approaching 
late week boundary. The fropa looks as though it will occur Thursday 
afternoon. A good chance of showers will accompany the boundary. 
Deep moisture is presented by both the Euro and GFS solutions and is 
centered over western middle TN 18z Thu. Adjacent 06Z periods are 
dry, thus revealing a rather narrow deep moisture period. Pop 
inclusion will reach into the lower likelihood realm. Run to run not 
looking too bad. Wont drift much from NBM and ISC advice. 

Behind the front, northerly fetch of course will set up. 850 mb 
temps plummet particularly with the GFS solution. GFS features 
mostly nva on the backside of the trough so is looking dry in the 
post frontal sector. European solution looks a little more energetic 
on the backside but qpf returns still look meager until perhaps day 
8. Otw, qpf amounts with the Thursday fropa look like around an 
inch. Little instability noted so will lean toward shower inclusion 
only. 

For the ext temps, the period will start out warm with highs in the 
lower 70s on Wednesday. A definitive cooling trend will then 
commence with highs holding in the upper 40s to near 50 on Saturday. 
Thursdays low in the lower 50s will tumble into the lower to mid 30s 
by Saturday morning. 

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Patchy fog will again be in place during the beginning of the taf
period. With temperatures at or below freezing near CSV, some
freezing fog will be possible as well. Otw, skies should become
SKC aft 14Z with just light winds expected. Light fog will again 
possible toward the end of the taf period. 


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21