947 
FXUS62 KKEY 071013
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
513 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...
A comfortable, uneventful, and peaceful, albeit breezy, overnight
for the Florida Keys. The Florida Keys remains on the southwest
periphery of a trough that extends from a surface low situated
northeast of Florida. The position of this low did allow for a
northerly drainage wind to develop overnight, which is currently 
still ongoing and affecting mainly the middle and upper Keys and 
nearshore waters. The strength of this drainage has tapered some 
but the effects can be seen most notably in the temperatures. 
Marathon Airport dropped to 64 degrees as the drainage wind passed
through. Meanwhile, Key West is being affected by the synoptic 
flow out of the northwest and therefore has been sitting in the 
lower 70s all night. In addition to the northwest flow, moisture
trapped in the boundary layer has been enough to support a mid
deck of clouds at times which has also helped to keep temps up.

Said surface low will continue to pull away from the region as it
treks northeast throughout the day. This will lead to a gradual
decrease in winds across the island chain and Florida Keys coastal
waters today through Tuesday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure
will be developing across the Southern Plains and transiting
eastward through the week. This will further promote a gradual
decrease in winds along with suppressing rain chances.

Towards the end of the week, moisture will once again surge
northward, leading to higher than normal rain chances returning.
This moisture surge will coincide with an advancing, but
weakening, front. Models are struggling with this next potential
front but agree that it should be in a decaying state by the time
it reaches the Florida Keys.

In the meantime, enjoy the comfortable dew points while they last.

&&

.MARINE...
An overnight surge remains ongoing across the waters adjacent to
the upper Keys. Otherwise, breezes have slackened to moderate
breezes across most of the Florida Keys coastal waters. A low
pressure located northeast of Florida will trek northeast over the
next several days. This will lead to a continued gradual
slackening of breezes through Wednesday. Rain chances will be near
or slightly below normal through the period. Chances increase
towards the end of the week in advance of an approaching front.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH into this evening. 
After a few bouts of lower CIGs early this morning, cloud cover will 
decrease and below average rain chances will persist. Surface winds 
will be out of the northwest between 10 and 15 knots with gusts up 
to near 20 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history in 1958, the daily record high 
temperature of 88F was recorded at Key West International Airport. 
Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  78  69  77  70 / 10 -  -  -  
Marathon  77  66  77  69 / -  -  -  10 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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