497 FXUS65 KLKN 070953 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 153 AM PST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A cold front will continue to bring scattered light showers and mountain snow to portions of Nevada today. A short period of quiet weather is expected Monday before another weather disturbance moves into the region Tuesday bringing more widespread showers, mountain snow and some gusty winds to the area. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side in the 40s and 50s through next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. A cold front moving through the area today will bring a few valley rain and mountain snow showers to portions of northern, northeastern and eastern Nevada today. Most of the precipitation should be in ELko county with only a few hundredths liquid equivalent in the valleys and around one quarter of an inch in the higher mountainous terrain of Elko county through this evening. Minimal impact to travel is expected although higher passes could have brief periods of snow. Winds will be out of the west and northwest across the area today bringing in a cooler air mass with highs only in the 40s north of US-50. A few 50s and 60s ahead of the front will be found across northern Nye county and White Pine county. Precipitation tapers off tonight with dry conditions expected Monday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday but overall cool temperatures especially in northeast Nevada will continue. Lows will be in the 20s tonight across central and northern Nevada. .LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday. Monday night into Tuesday: An upper level low pressure system will be approaching coastal British Columbia Canada. This feature will direct an upper shortwave into NV for the first part of the long term. The system will be moving across northern and central Nevada beginning late Monday night into Tuesday bringing mainly valley rainfall and mountain snow. Models have trended slower with this system which will bring the bulk of the precipitation during the day on Tuesday. Snow levels during this time will start at about 6500+ feet. With warm southwesterly flow aloft, warm air advection will allow for snow levels to slowly rise during the day. Snow amounts are expected to be minimal in the valleys with only the highest elevation valleys averaging less than 0.5 inches, with some of the higher passes and summits seeing about an inch. Tuesday into Wednesday, expect light rain showers to continue with intermittent breaks. Afternoon highs will be in the 40s and 50s, and westerly winds will be a bit breezy but should remain below advisory thresholds. Model agreement on precipitation amounts with this system has generally evaporated, with most models, with the exception of the Canadian suite, abruptly shifting significantly drier by 60 percent. So confidence in amounts at this time is low, overall still expect bulk of the precipitation to fall across N NV with C NV seeing lighter amounts. Winds will switch northwesterly later in the evening and overnight as a cold front passes through the area. Overnight lows will drop into the 20s and 30s, but by this time most of the precipitation will have ended, but an additional quick shot of snow is possible especially for N NV. Wednesday afternoon through Saturday: High Pressure will build back in as winds shift back to the southwest. Afternoon highs will slowly nudge up each day as high reach back into the upper 50s and low 60s Saturday. Winds will be light, and overnight lows will also slowly warm from the middle 20s to the low 30s. && .AVIATION...A few showers are expected today at KEKO and KBAM this morning with a few lingering showers through the afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Significant reductions in CIG and VIS but occasional MVFR conditions are possible. Otherwise, relatively light winds are expected across central and northern Nevada although KELY could see some 20 kt gusts during the day today. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 93/98/93