123 FXUS65 KABQ 070939 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 239 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Another splendid day is on tap for northern and central New Mexico, although winds will be a little stronger compared to Saturday. High temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with many areas approaching or exceeding daily record highs. Readings may be a tick lower for Monday as a very weak disturbance passes across the state, but another round of low to mid 80s will be possible in the east. A stronger system will pass just north of New Mexico for Tuesday night through Wednesday. The threat for precipitation looks bleak, with a few rain and snow showers possible over the northern mountains. The bigger story will be the windy conditions as a cold front moves west to east across the state. The strongest winds will be along the high terrain, eastern slopes and adjacent highlands. Afternoon highs are forecast to be closer to seasonal averages across the northwest for Wednesday, then areawide for Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... The upper level ridge will begin to slowly loosen its grip over NM today and into Monday as southwesterly flow aloft increases and the ridge axis is shunted farther east. While this will lead to lowering pressure heights over NM, the 500 mb height fields will still consist of anomalously high values (1 to 2 standard deviations above climatology), and this will keep the above average warmth persisting. Many locations will once again reach within a few degrees of daily record highs this afternoon. In addition, breezes may be slightly stronger this afternoon along and east of the central mountain chain due to a deeper lee-side surface low and well-mixed boundary layer. Some mid to high clouds may begin to approach western zones by the evening, but overall mostly sunny skies are expected today. A swath of cirrus clouds will spread into NM on Monday as southwesterly flow increases. The additional cloud cover and lowering of heights by a couple decameters will drop high temperatures Monday afternoon by a degree or two, but readings will still be well above average with a few locations still close to daily records. At the surface the aforementioned lee-side surface low will be filling in over northeast NM as a front encroaches toward that corner of the state. This could limit breezes in eastern Colfax and Union counties, but remaining eastern zones will still observe breezy conditions in the afternoon. 52 LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... A very low amplitude shortwave will traverse the state Monday night with the best moisture and upr level dynamics well north of NM. That said, it will send a backdoor front through the eastern plains with the NAM12/Canadian offering the quicker solutions and the GFS/ECWMF about 3-6 hours slower. The only influence this boundary should have is cooler high temperatures in its wake for Tuesday, especially over the northeast plains. Meanwhile, broad cyclonic flow persists across the northern/eastern Pacific with a slug of deep moisture as well as a more pronounced shortwave moving into the PacNW/northern CA on Monday. Deterministic models appear to be in better alignment with how this disturbance is expected to traverse the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Wednesday. Current timing has the Pacific front pushing across the CWA Tuesday night. A strong jet aloft will also impact the area during this time, with the GFS20 depicting 60kt 700hPa speeds along/east of the Sangre de Cristos, expanding southward to include areas as far south as the Sacramento Mts by mid-Wednesday morning. Opted to enhance winds well above NBM guidance as it typically handles these situations poorly. In fact, model cross sections suggest mountain wave activity may be possible, and this could necessitate the need for wind highlights as the event draws closer. Upr level wind speeds relax by Wed afternoon, and this will likely limit the potential severity across the eastern plains. A change in forecast timing will have an impact on this risk, so it should be monitored closely. As for precipitation, all of the deterministic guidance keep the majority of the moisture and forcing north of the CWA, and thus producing no QPF. With that said, a minor shift southward with the system's trajectory may result in a better opportunity across the northern mts. Ensemble guidance continues to reflect this possibility, but opted to knock down NBM PoPs back down into the slight chance category. There is better agreement for the late work week period as the state will be under dry northwest flow with afternoon breeziness. This will continue to usher in cooler air, keeping high temps near mid-November averages. As the upper level trough slowly shifts eastward, this will allow heights to increase as a ridge builds across the southwest U.S. As a result, readings will creep higher each day during the upcoming weekend. DPorter && .FIRE WEATHER... As we finish up the weekend and start the next week with continued above average, and even near-record warmth, very low afternoon humidity can also be expected along with breezy to locally windy conditions over many eastern zones. Winds will be strongest near and just north of the Interstate 40 corridor of eastern NM where spotty critical fire weather conditions are expected for a couple hours late today and again on Monday afternoon. Temperatures will still be well above average going into Tuesday, but readings will have cooled a few, if not several degrees, especially in eastern zones where a surface front will have made some impact. Some breeziness is still possible in northern zones Tuesday, but the cooler temperatures should give a slight boost to humidity. Temperatures cool more significantly into Wednesday when the jet stream will buckle and turn more northwesterly, drawing much stronger winds into the state. The cooling temperatures and meager rises in humidity on Wednesday will keep conditions from reaching traditional critical fire weather thresholds, but nonetheless the strong winds could prove hazardous, especially for any prescribed burning. Any precipitation will be scant, offering minimal fuel moisture. A cooler, brisk day is then expected on Thursday as stiff northwest flow continues to drop temperatures (even below average for a few locations). This strong northwest flow will gradually relax into Friday and the weekend with temperatures climbing their way back above normal by next Sunday. 52 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions are expected to prevail over most of northern and central New Mexico through Sunday evening. Similar to Saturday morning, a few low stratus clouds may develop in southeastern parts of the state toward dawn, but should mostly stay out of the Albuquerque forecast area and away from KROW and KCVN. Breezes will be a bit stronger this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 kt being common in east central to northeastern New Mexico. 52 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 71 38 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 68 31 65 28 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 68 40 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 70 33 68 29 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 68 31 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 71 29 69 27 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 69 33 67 31 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 72 42 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 69 35 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 74 31 71 31 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 77 40 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 63 29 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 65 43 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 67 41 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 62 38 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 57 26 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 60 18 59 22 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 67 29 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 69 38 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 71 33 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 67 39 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 37 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 44 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 72 47 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 74 39 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 72 43 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 75 38 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 74 40 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 74 34 73 34 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 73 40 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 75 33 73 34 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 71 43 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 72 43 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 78 42 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 68 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 71 43 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 71 39 70 36 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 73 30 72 29 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 69 38 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 71 42 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 71 42 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 73 45 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 71 41 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 73 42 71 32 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 76 34 74 30 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 77 34 75 31 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 72 39 70 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 81 46 78 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 76 41 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 82 41 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 79 41 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 85 46 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 81 44 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 82 43 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 82 41 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 83 43 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 80 46 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 78 44 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 52/46