016 FXUS63 KJKL 070902 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 402 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 308 AM EST SUN NOV 7 2021 The latest upper level map features low pressure churning off of the South Carolina Coast, with troughing extending south across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Further north, a compact short wave trough is spiraling across southeastern Ontario, with broad troughing fanned to the south through portions of the Ohio Valley. Mainly zonal flow is found from the West Coast through the Rockies, with a broader ridge axis extending from the Upper Midwest down through the southern Plains. At the surface, occluded low pressure is pulling away from the South Carolina Coast, with expansive high pressure continuing to control from New England through the lower Mississippi Valley. The last of the high clouds associated with the system to our southeast have edged out of the entire Commonwealth, with mainly clear skies in place. Temperatures are running near to slightly milder compared to last night at this time, with sheltered valleys having dipped into the mid 20s, while broader valleys range from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Ridgetops are currently reporting in upper 30s to lower 40s. The models are in excellent agreement through the short term. Upper level ridging will sharpen up and pivot to the east, aligning more along the Appalachians down through the lower Mississippi Valley by late Monday. At the surface, high pressure will not move much from where it is currently residing, generally maintaining itself from New England down through the lower Mississippi Valley. The higher heights moving in across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys will result in mainly clear skies and also a continuation of the moderating temperatures, with highs returning to above normal by Monday. Once the patchy valley fog burns off by around 10 am or so, full sunshine will allow temperatures to rebound into the lower 60s for most locations. Clear skies and calming winds will result in another good valley drop off, with still some 20s achievable for the more typically sheltered sites. Monday will feature another sunny day, with highs in the mid and upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 402 AM EST SUN NOV 7 2021 A ridge of high pressure will allow warm and dry weather to persist across eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period. Mostly sunny skies, light winds, and dry conditions will be on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday. However, a large trough of low pressure aloft will be approaching the region Wednesday night and Thursday, and will bring rain back to the by late Thursday. A strong surface cold front will accompany the trough, and will bring rain showers to eastern Kentucky to finish out the week and into the weekend. Highs will max out in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday. Once the surface front moves through the area Friday evening and night, another cold air mass will settle over the region. This airmass change will bring below normal temperatures back to the forecast for the weekend, with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s expected. The rest of the extended will see lows only falling into the 40s for most locations. The exception will be Tuesday morning, when most locations may see lows in the mid to upper 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN NOV 7 2021 High pressure will maintain mostly clear skies as well as light and variable winds through the period. Some IFR or lower fog will develop through 12z within some of the deeper river valleys, before burning off between 13 and 14z. Visibility restrictions are not expected to impact any of the TAF locations. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN