036 FXUS61 KBGM 070852 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 352 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Extended period of dry and mostly clear weather continues with high pressure in control. A warming trend continues today and into the coming work week, with temperatures climbing well above average. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Some patchy fog is showing up on satellite over portions of the Delaware valley, but we have struggled to see any developing over the rest of the area tonight. This may be due to slightly steadier southwesterly flow at the top of the boundary layer compared to previous nights, perhaps having kept things better mixed and limiting the strength of the nighttime inversion. Still, will allow for the possibility for some fog across the rest of our river valleys through the rest of the predawn hours. With temperatures bottoming out in the 20s to lower 30s, some freezing fog is possible. Any fog mixes out after sunrise, and another sunny and quiet day is expected with high pressure sprawled out over the region. Light southerly winds and warm air advection aloft will help us turn a few degrees warmer than on Saturday. Expecting highs in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area. The upper ridge axis shifts directly over us overnight. A shortwave passing through southern Ontario and a brief shift to west/northwest flow aloft may allow some clouds to drift into our area, but skies remain otherwise mostly clear. Temperatures continue to warm aloft, up to 7-8C at 850mb, resulting in a strong low level inversion. This in turn will lead to a so a strong low level inversion pretty large range in overnight lows, with the valleys falling again into the 30s and upper 20s, and the higher elevations in the mid and even upper 30s. The Finger Lakes and Ontario lake plain will remain mild, also in the mid/upper 30s. The warming trend continues into Monday. Any clouds from the overnight disturbance move out, with another sunny day and highs reaching well above average, into the upper 50s across much of the area and the lower 60s in the typically warmer valleys and urban spots. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM Update The short term will be fairly quiet as high pressure will remain in place. A weak shortwave does move through the region late Tuesday bringing slightly cooler air and possible some precipitation as well. The ECMWF and CMC show some light rain showers over our region Tuesday night while the GFS keeps it all to the north. There does appear to be just enough moisture and support to trigger some showers. Following the National Blend of Models (NBM), the result was a slight chance across the Finger Lakes and into the the Western Mohawk Valley and Tug Hill Plateau regions. Temperatures will be pleasant to start the work week. NBM guidance was trending warmer on Monday. For this update, went a degree higher than NBM for Monday as skies will be mostly clear and 850mb temps will be nearing double digits. This resulted in highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The lows Monday night will be in the 30s and 40s, Temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s with lows in the 40s for most.A narrow high pressure ridge remains entrenched over our forecast area Sunday night. With temperatures continuing to warm aloft (now around +7C at 850mb) we will see an even stronger, steeper low level inversion developing. Am expecting quite a range in overnight lows, with the higher hilltops 35-40 and the deeper valleys back down at least into the upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 PM Update Midweek should be dry but a system at the end of the week will bring an end to the dry stretch. A ridge of high pressure moves into the region Wednesday morning, bringing an end to any showers that developed the night before. Dry conditions are expected through at least Thursday with another warming trend to finish out the week. A low pressure system in Manitoba will drag a cold front across the Central US and into the Northeast late in the week. With temperatures still quite warm, rain showers are expected with the arrival of this system. Due to timing difference between models, the NBM was used for PoPs but limited them to no more than 60 percent as the NBM seemed a bit high being this far out. This solution introduces a chance of showers Thursday night with the best chance on Friday. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR continues at all terminals for the forecast period with clear skies and light winds. However, the exception continues to be KELM with valley fog/freezing fog likely developing over the next couple of hours. MVFR and occasional IFR restrictions are expected after 08Z, then IFR will be likely through from the pre-dawn hours until shortly after sunrise as fog gradually mixes out. Winds remain light out of the south/southeast, peaking at around 5kts during the afternoon. Outlook... Sunday night through Wednesday...Brief river valley fog possible during late night/early morning hours at KELM, otherwise VFR with an extended period of dry weather and mostly clear skies. Thursday...Partly sunny and mainly VFR expected. Breezy south winds 10-20 kts and gusty at times. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HLC NEAR TERM...HLC SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...HLC