143 
FXUS63 KSGF 070845
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

Key Messages: 

1. Quiet and mild with above normal temperatures through Wednesday.
2. Rain showers with a few thunderstorms late Wednesday into 
Thursday.
3. Colder to start the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

A warming trend begins today and continues through Monday. As the 
surface high slides eastward today into the Ohio Valley, low level 
warm advection, along with upper level troughing and ample sunshine 
will boost temperatures back above normal for today through Monday. 
Went on the high side of guidance for highs both today and Monday 
(NBM 75th percentile), which will put highs in the upper 60s to 
lower 70s. Southerly winds will be a little stronger both today and 
Monday, with a few gusts to between 25 and 30 mph possible, mainly 
west of highway 65.

Southerly breezes will keep temperatures up tonight with lows ranging 
from the lower 40s in the eastern Ozarks to the upper 40s over 
southeast Kansas. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

Monday night and Tuesday:
Clouds will spread into the region Monday night ahead of a weak 
shortwave trough. This will push a weak frontal boundary into the 
western portions of the forecast area on Tuesday, with a warm 
front setting up across central Missouri. Cannot rule out some 
light showers or sprinkles on Tuesday across central Missouri, but
moisture remains limiting factor. The mild temperatures will 
continue with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and highs back in
the middle to upper 60s.

Tuesday Night Through Thursday: 
Clouds will continue to thicken Tuesday night and Wednesday as a 
shortwave trough digs into the central Plains. This will push a 
cold front through the area late Wednesday through Wednesday 
night. Mild weather will continue ahead of the front along with 
gusty south to southwest winds. Moisture will also increase across
the area on a 40 knot low level jet. Currently, highest 
instabilities look to remain across Kansas and Oklahoma Wednesday 
afternoon. This instability does edge into the western areas 
Wednesday night and do expect thunderstorms within the broader 
rain shower shield Wednesday night. Severe potential at this point
looks rather low. A cool and rainy day is expected Thursday, with
the showers coming to an end from west to east late Thursday into
Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday: 
Significant differences continue in the upper height fields 
within the deterministic and ensemble data Friday and Saturday, 
which show a wide temperature spread by the ensembles. There is a 
high probability we will see a cool down behind the front, but 
questions remain as to how much cooler given the wide ensemble 
spread. Thus, confidence this far out is fairly low at this time. 
We are sticking with the NBM output at this time which yields us 
around 30 for lows and 40s for highs. These are slightly cooler 
temperatures than previous forecast. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. LLWS will be
possible Sunday night, mainly at KSGF and KJLN.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Raberding
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Titus