743 FXUS62 KGSP 070814 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 314 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warming high pressure will begin building into the region today and remain through the middle of the week. A significant storm system is then expected to bring a return of unsettled weather late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST: An axis of broad high pressure will slowly build into the area today behind the departing coastal low drifting further offshore. This will result in clearing skies, lighter winds and a nice rebound in temps. Still expect some low-end gusts thru about midday, especially across the Piedmont, as we mix some NELY flow between the approaching high and departing low. But overall, it should be a nice day, with highs near normal. Tonight, high pressure will continue to build in, and should make for good radiational cooling conditions. With that said, the air mass building in from the west is moderating, and the increasing thicknesses result in min temps mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the Piedmont where the frost/freeze program hasn't been shut off for the season. I still think there will be at least patchy frost across these areas, in the usual coolest spots. But urban areas, the thermal belt off the escarpment, and near lakes look to be too warm at this time. So will plan to continue to mention frost in the HWO, but punt any Frost Advisory to the day shift. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 am Sunday: Dry, deep layer ridging will dominate the pattern over the much of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic through much of the short term...before height falls passing north of our forecast area flatten the upper ridge late in the period. This should result in a return to more in the way of typical, dry mid-autumn weather with warm days (actually around 5 degrees above climo) and cool nights, with a dry air mass and ideal radiational cooling conditions supporting 30 degree diurnal temp ranges. Min temps are forecast to fall a degree or two below climo both Mon and Tue night, but this should preclude any frost concerns. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 am Sunday: The warm and dry weather of the short term will extend into the early part of the long term, with at least one more day of above-normal temperatures expected Wed. The remainder of the forecast period continues to look increasingly active as a major trough emerges from the central Conus late in the week. While the global models agree in the evolution of the larger scale pattern, the devil is in the synoptic and mesoscale details, and the models remain a bit all over the place in this regard, with substantial differences in the timing, location, and intensity of key features. Based upon a consensus of the primary guidance sources, we will continue to ramp up PoPs beginning late Thursday, peaking in the high chance range Thu night and Fri before slowly drawing them down through the end of the period (although at least slight chances are carried through Saturday). The picture regarding a potential for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall remains about as clear as mud at this juncture, but considering the dynamic nature of the pattern, this will remain of some concern. Otherwise, increasing clouds and moisture will tighten up the diurnal temperatures ranges during the extended, with max temps forecast near to a bit below normal through the period, while min temps should generally be above climo. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A pocket of MVFR cigs continues to expand westward across the I-77 corridor at time of 06z TAF issuance. Drier air will filter in from the NE, scouring out the cloud deck thru the pre-dawn hours, such that all sites are expected to go VFR by daybreak. There may also be some fog or stratus develop in the Little TN Valley, but otherwise, VFR conditions expected thru the period. N/NE winds are still gusting occasionally at KCLT, but should see a lull before around 14z, with some mixing bringing low-end gusts back across most of the Piedmont sites until mid-aftn. Winds will become light at all sites this evening under clear skies. Outlook: No significant flight restrictions are anticipated through at least Wednesday with high pressure over the area. However, morning mountain valley fog will be possible. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDL NEAR TERM...ARK SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...ARK