818 FXUS61 KILN 070801 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 301 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week. This will lead to dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The next chance of rain will arrive on Thursday before cooler air filters back into the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through this afternoon. Outside of a few cirrus clouds, we should see another day with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate with highs this afternoon in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The surface high will shift very slowly southeast tonight into Monday. With a dry airmass still in place, skies will remain mostly clear through the short term period. We will also continue to slowly moderate with highs on Monday mainly in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The H5 ridge influencing our weather will dampen Monday night. By Tuesday, we will see flow aloft become more quasi-zonal. Deep layer southwesterly flow will still enable temperatures to trend above seasonal normals on Tuesday in the middle to upper 60s. We will begin to observe increased cloud coverage throughout the day Tuesday - mainly in the middle and upper-levels. This is ahead of a shortwave trough that will traverse the Upper Midwest region Tuesday night. The bulk of the precipitation will remain north of our counties towards the Great Lakes and northern OH region, but some of our northern counties may observe light rain overnight. Have begun to introduce a 20% PoP for our west-central Ohio counties. The shortwave feature quickly propagates east of our CWA Wednesday, allowing for a ridge to briefly build back in for the day. Partly cloudy skies are still expected during the day, but there should be plenty of breaks in the clouds to allow sunshine to seep through - helping temperatures to reach the middle 60s once again. A fairly robust H5 trough stretched across the Central Plains will begin to traverse the Midwest region Wednesday night. This will inevitably increase chances for rain from the west Wednesday night, with the best coverage in rain expected Thursday and Thursday night as of now. This trough feature becomes further amplified in the GFS/Euro/CMC models as we head into the start of the next weekend - digging into the southern US near the Gulf. This will provide a blast of cooler air out of Canada Friday into Saturday. With an upper low lagging behind the primary surface low, rain and even some snow (primarily overnight when temperatures drop low enough) linger into the weekend. Accumulating snow seems unlikely at this time, but confidence is high in a sharp cooldown, with high temperatures trending towards the lower to middle 40s on Saturday. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some valley fog will be possible again through mid morning, likely affecting KLUK with some MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions. Otherwise, high pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...JGL