819 FXUS65 KABQ 070555 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1155 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions are expected to prevail over most of northern and central New Mexico through Sunday evening. Similar to Saturday morning, a few low stratus clouds may develop in southeastern parts of the state toward dawn, but should mostly stay out of the Albuquerque forecast area and away from KROW and KCVN. Breezes will be a bit stronger this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 kt being common in east central to northeastern New Mexico. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...153 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Very dry conditions with near record warmth will continue through the weekend, with plenty of sunshine. Breezes will pick up Tuesday in advance of a cold front, forecast to push through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Expect breezy to windy conditions Wednesday with the cold front, which is forecast to bring temperatures down closer to normal for early to mid November. A few showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday with the frontal passage, but mainly near the Colorado border and over the higher terrain. Cooler conditions will prevail behind the front Thursday, but then a warm up will begin that will take daytime temperatures back above normal areawide by next Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... Very tranquil weather conditions continue into tonight and again on Sunday. The weak ridge of high pressure over the state today will flatten on Sunday as a troughing pattern takes shape over the PacNW and southwest flow results over NM. The warming trend will continue one more day on Sunday before a cooling trend begins in the long term period. Highs across the area will range about 10 to 20 degrees above average with numerous locations likely recording near record high daily temperatures. High temperatures across the eastern plains will be further helped by the deepening of a lee-side surface low across northeastern NM. This ~1003mb sfc low will result in breezier conditions compared to today, particularly along the I-40 corridor where downsloping winds will aid in the warming trend. LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... Westerly flow aloft will be on the uptrend early week in advance of a low amplitude trough and associated cold front, forecast to push through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Continued unusually warm conditions are forecast Monday with afternoon breezes. Near record high temperatures are possible at a few eastern NM locales Monday, boosted by downslope winds. The 12Z medium range model solutions are showing a less amplified trough passage Tuesday night into Wednesday compared to yesterday's 12Z runs, with very little to no precipitation across our area. Will hold onto slight chance PoPs near the CO border from the northern mountains to the Four Corners for now. Forecast wind speeds have trended down some with the cold frontal passage, but breezy to windy conditions are still anticipated and one or two forecast zones may require an advisory. Cooling behind the front will bring temperatures down closer to normal Wed/Thu, but then increasing pressure heights will bring a warming trend with daytime temperatures forecast to reach back above normal areawide by next Saturday. 15/11 && .FIRE WEATHER... The warming trend continues one more day on Sunday as high temperatures range from 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Southwest winds will also strengthen on Sunday compared to today across the east central and northeast plains. Combined with humidities falling into the low-teen's across this same area, a couple hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions can't be ruled out. However, these potential critical fire weather conditions are not expected to be widespread or be long-lived. Therefore, will forgo any fire weather products at this time. A couple of weak disturbances then track across the central Rockies through mid-week. Spotty showers will be possible across the northern mountains Wednesday, but cooler (but still a few degrees above average) temperatures are in store for the entire area. Northwest flow sets up over the area late next week, keeping the cooling trend continuing, but also likely resulting in breezy to windy conditions. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$