793 FXUS62 KFFC 070551 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 151 AM EDT Sun Nov 7 2021 ...06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion... .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 919 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ UPDATE... Dry cool forecast remains on track tonight. Thus, both the freeze warning and frost advisory remain in effect through tomorrow morning for the northwestern and northern portions of the area. Tomorrow clear skies will prevail allowing high temperatures to climb into the upper 60s area wide. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Cooler-than-average temperatures will continue to be the main story through tonight. Compact/intense storm system off the FL/GA coast will continue to slowly move northeast tonight and Sunday. This system is affecting mainly our far southeastern counties today, where clouds and periods of light rain have kept temps down in the mid 40s to around 50. Elsewhere across the area this afternoon, temps are generally in the 50s with sun peaking through any mid to high-lvl clouds. On the backside of the upr trough/storm system, clearing skies and weakening winds will allow for good radiational cooling tonight. Current dewpoints in the 20s and 30s should support temps falling into the mid-upr 30s across many locations overnight. As a result, have gone with a Frost Advisory for a good portion of west-central and northwest GA overnight/early Sunday. And for a portion of far north Georgia, expect temps to drop to around 30F degrees which has prompted a Freeze Warning (Fannin/Union and Towns county). Sunday and Sunday night, dry and stable conditions will prevail with temps rebounding (at least daytime highs) compared to the past couple of days. At this point, not seeing a need for any Frost/Freeze headlines for Sunday night/early Monday but patchy frost will be possible with pockets of mid 30s again expected. DJN.83 LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... The first half of the long term forecast period is dominated by a strengthening ridge over the east coast. A warming trend in temperatures continues through Wednesday as the high pressure remains in place along the Appalachian Mountains. Warmer than average daily maximum temperatures that reach into the 70s through the midweek will be accompanied by calm conditions. Sunny skies are abundant as low relative humidities from the surface to the midlevels will limit cloud coverage. The dry and warm conditions come to an end the second half of the long term period as a trough kicking out of the Rockies begins to erode the ridge from the west. A well defined low pressure system develops over the Dakotas Thursday and continues its march eastward into the Great Lakes Region, ultimately bringing the next round of active weather to our region with a cold front. Global models struggle to arrive at a consensus over the timing of the frontal passage and how much moisture north and central Georgia will receive from this system. Guidance does suggest that precipitation will be possible generally starting Thursday evening, lasting through Friday, and tapering off by early Saturday. PoPs are limited to high- end chance Thursday evening and early Friday given the lack of consensus amongst models with timing and QPF, and a slight chance of precipitation is forecast through Saturday. Consistent with previous forecasts, instability remains weak, so thunder has been left out of the forecast. KAL && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. With the exception of MCN where cigs around 4000 ft will persist through the next couple of hours, skies will become clear at most sites through early morning. Winds will largely remain NNW to NW through the period at 3-8 kts with periods of light and vrb to near calm early this morning. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 65 41 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 62 35 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 64 37 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 69 42 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 66 41 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 68 39 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 66 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 66 38 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 65 42 68 43 / 5 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for the following zones: Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee... Cobb...Coweta...Dade...Dawson...Douglas...Floyd...Gilmer... Gordon...Haralson...Heard...Lumpkin...Meriwether...Murray... Paulding...Pickens...Polk...Troup...Walker...White...Whitfield. Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EST this morning for the following zones: Fannin...Towns...Union. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....KAL AVIATION...RW