978 
FXUS61 KILN 070538
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
138 AM EDT Sun Nov 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the
region into early next week. This will lead to a gradual warming
trend over the next few days. The next chance of rain will not
arrive until Thursday before cooler air filters back in late
week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A bit of thin cirrus will spread across the region overnight.
Otherwise, calm and cool conditions will continue with some
valley fog. Forecast looks on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The sfc ridge axis will remain in place across the OH Vly tonight
through Sunday night. This will lead to continued mostly clear 
and dry conditions. Temperatures will continue to moderate with 
highs on Sunday into the upper 50s to lower 60s. The slightly 
better WSW sfc flow across west-central OH may allow for temps 
to be a degree or two higher than for places further SE. 

With the sfc ridge gradually drifting east into early this 
week, slightly warmer air will build back during this time
frame. Lows on Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer, mainly
in the low/mid 30s, than will be the case tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level ridge stretched from Mexico northeastward into the 
Ohio Valley provides abundant sunshine and continued dry weather
Monday. Forecast temperatures Monday afternoon are expected in 
the low to mid 60s, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Upper
level clouds increasing from the west Monday night will act as 
a signal for some minor changes to the overall weather pattern 
by midweek. Height falls across the Great Lakes and Northeast 
Tuesday shunt the ridge southward, allowing a low level trough 
to advance southeastward. Moisture supply along the front is 
stretched thin and overall forcing is weak. Cloud cover expands 
eastward during the day on Tuesday with the warmest temperatures
for northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Ensemble guidance 
suggests a slight chance for showers across west-central Ohio 
Tuesday night, but will keep with previous forecast thinking of 
a dry scenario due to low predictability. 

As the surface trough stalls across the area Wednesday, cloud cover 
remains, but the forecast is dry. Temperatures will be slightly 
cooler than Wednesday given the increased cloud cover but are still 
expected to be above normal. Front lifts northward Wednesday night 
into Thursday as cyclogenesis occurs across the middle and upper 
Mississippi River valleys. Breezy and rainy day Thursday as a 
surface low and cold front move through the Great Lakes and Ohio 
Valley regions. Depending on the arrival of the front, much of 
Thursday will be well above normal temperatures wise. Chances for 
rain increase from west to east during the day on Thursday with the 
passage of the cold front. One key factor in the forecast as it 
currently stands is that the ensembles are much more broad with the 
moisture fields, due to timing differences, broadening the duration 
(~24 hours) of likely rain chances. As confidence increases, a ~6 
hour window of highest rain chances will be much closer to reality. 

Deep moisture quickly exits to the east late Thursday into Friday, 
but the broad surface low and upper level trough continue to impact 
local weather. Temperatures drop much closer to normal behind the 
front on Friday and below normal on Saturday. Low pressure to the 
north offers blustery northwesterly flow with continue chances for 
scattered rain showers to start the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some valley fog will be possible again through mid morning, 
likely affecting KLUK with some MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions. 
Otherwise, high pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place 
across the region with VFR conditions expected to prevail 
through the TAF period. 

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...JGL