259 FXUS64 KLIX 070455 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1155 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 .AVIATION...06Z TAF Package...VFR conditions currently over all terminals and should remain that way through the forecast. There is some fog develop off to the northwest but this should stay out of MCB and BTR. Once the sun comes up if there is any fog around it should quickly burn off. /CAB/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 745 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ EVENING UPDATE...Overall the forecast is not too far but hourly temps have been falling faster than anticipated and given the lack of heating in the far northwest during the day thanks to clouds temps in that area started off this evening cooler. This will likely allow overnight temps to fall just a touch more than forecast in those locations of southwest MS and northwest of the BR metro. Also given the current rate of falling temps we have lowered the morning lows another degree or two in a few spots. This could allow for about a third of the area to finally see morning lows below 40. Grids and zones out shortly. /CAB/ AVIATION...00z TAF Package...Overall rather quiet for all terminals tonight. There may be some very light shallow fog near BTR and MCB but not anticipating any impacts at the terminals with VFR conditions continuing through tomorrow. /CAB/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)... A potent shortwave trough and low pressure system will continue to push east across/east of Florida and the southeast Atlantic coast region the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A mid/upper level high pressure ridge will move east across the central U.S. states into the Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast region the remainder of the weekend with a surface high pressure ridge and deep layer dry air building into the forecast area. What should be the last area of persistent low clouds should gradually dissipate late this afternoon and tonight across the portions of east central/south central Louisiana to the west and northwest of Baton Rouge. This is expected to lead to a generally clear/sunny forecast to finish off the weekend on Sunday and into Monday before some clouds return on Tuesday. No rain is expected, so this is mainly a temperature forecast. Have stayed fairly close to the NBM temperatures, although lowered some of the lows slightly in some northern/eastern areas the next couple nights. GFS Buffer Model soundings are indicating quite a bit lower dewpoints in the boundary layer than indicated in the MOS and NBM guidance for Sunday afternoon, so have lowered the dewpoints and RH values several notches to account for this set up. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)... Mid and upper level heights will fall Wednesday and Wednesday night as the shortwave ridge moves well to the east and a shortwave trough moves quickly east from the Rockies through the Plains towards the Mississippi Valley. The 00z run of the ECMWF was quite a bit sharper/deeper with the portion of the shortwave trough that moves across the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast region than the latest 12z run, however this current model run is still stronger across the Gulf Coast region than the recent GFS runs. Confidence on which solution is correct is low at this point, so the NBM guidance was generally accepted with only minor modifications to rain chances at this point. Have indicated a chance of showers areawide and slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the forecast area for mainly Thursday and Thursday night. A secondary shortwave trough is expected to dive down the back side and base of a deepening longwave trough over the eastern U.S. (east of the forecast area) Friday into Friday night. This could cause a few additional showers on Friday, however it could easily be dry from Friday through next weekend. The other concern is the differences and lack of confidence in the models result in quite a spread in the ensemble temperature guidance. At this point, a cold front moving through by late Friday is expected to drop temperatures back below normal/seasonal averages with lows in the 40s to near 50 and highs in the 60s for Friday night and Saturday. This will have to be watched as there could be a colder surge either towards the tail end of this forecast or by later in the weekend. AVIATION... Low clouds continue to gradually dissipate/move west of KBTR, so mostly clear skies, good visibilities and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday. MARINE... Surface high pressure with cool air will continue to build into the central Gulf coast region from the north tonight into Sunday and Monday. The pressure gradient and cold air advection should maintain winds in the 15 to 20 knots range across the eastern coastal waters this evening before dropping to around 15 knots east and 10 to 15 knots elsewhere overnight. This gradual decreasing trend will continue Sunday into Monday while winds gradually come around to more easterly. High pressure will shift east towards the Atlantic coast Wednesday while low pressure and a cold front advance across the Plains and upper to mid Mississippi Valley. Winds are expected to veer around to southeast to south by late Wednesday into Thursday with speeds up to 10 to 15 knots. Some showers could accompany the next cold front by Thursday or Thursday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 39 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 42 70 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 40 71 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 49 68 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 42 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 39 70 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$