126 FXUS63 KJKL 070450 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1250 AM EDT Sun Nov 7 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1250 AM EDT SUN NOV 7 2021 Will lower some of the deeper valleys a few more degrees based on the latest trends in the observations. The rest of the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1042 PM EDT SAT NOV 6 2021 The forecast remains on track. Incorporated recent obs, but no substantial changes were needed. UPDATE Issued at 751 PM EDT SAT NOV 6 2021 Conditions remain quiet across east Kentucky this evening. Similar to last night, temperatures in the valleys are dropping off quickly. So, tweaked the hourly temp grids to get them back in line with recent trends. Otherwise, the going forecast is is good shape and just stuck to blending in recent obs. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 340 PM EDT SAT NOV 6 2021 An absolutely beautiful day across eastern KY with surface high pressure remaining in control. At the upper levels, a nearly stacked low pressure system is off the SE coast. Some high clouds associated with the system are once again filtering in to SE KY, but as that system moves NE over the course of the weekend, those high clouds will move out of the area. Locally, expecting height rises through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, with surface high pressure remaining in control. Temps this afternoon made it into the mid and upper 50s. Dew points are generally 25-30 degrees, and expect them to rise a few degrees overnight. Thus, it will be cold again tonight but a tad "warmer" with overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Some of the ridge tops may not fall below freezing tonight. With the dew points coming up a tad, fog may be a little more prevalent overnight but will still be confined to just the river valleys. Mostly clear skies again on Sunday with afternoon high temps in the upper 50s to around 60. Dew points will continue to slowly climb into the lower 30s by Sunday night so looking for low temps Monday morning to be in the low to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 453 PM EDT SAT NOV 6 2021 A dry and refreshingly mild pattern will prevail for most of the new work week. The threat of rain will return with a sharp cold front Thursday night. Damp and chilly weather follows heading into next weekend. The 12z model suite shows a nearly stationary ridge of surface high pressure stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to Texas Gulf Coast on Monday into Tuesday while its supporting upper level ridge lingers overhead. This ridge does start to subside through the day on Tuesday as a weak cold front drops toward the Ohio Valley. That front never reaches us though. Instead, a potent northern stream vort/closed low dropping out of the Canadian Prairies interacts with a southern stream disturbance over the Southern Plains to foster rapid cyclogenesis along the frontal boundary over the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This system will sweep a strong cold front across the Commonwealth on Thursday night. Behind the front, 850 mb temperatures will tumble to near or below 0C by Saturday morning on a blustery west to northwest winds. In sensible terms, look for sunny skies on Monday and mostly sunny conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thicker clouds move in Wednesday night and yield to showers ahead of the front on Thursday. The most likely time for the front’s passage and the most widespread shower activity appears to be Thursday night or early Friday morning. Behind the front, an initially westerly post-frontal wind direction in the system’s dry slot does not appear optimal for rapid cold air advection, thus expect only a diminished diurnal temperature cycle on Friday. However by Friday night and Saturday, the low-level winds turn more northwesterly, spreading wrap around moisture and much colder air across eastern Kentucky. In fact, thermal and moisture profiles may be marginally supportive of some flurries over higher mountains along the Virginia border and across ridges near the Pottsville Escarpment on Saturday morning. Temperature-wise, look for highs mainly in the 60s from Monday through Thursday. The warmest spots could flirt with 70 degrees on any of those days but the best chances appear to be on Tuesday. Nighttime lows will be seasonable, starting the week near freezing on Monday morning but moderating into mainly the 40s by Thursday morning. Later in the week, temperatures will be trending cooler with highs only near 60 on Friday and likely remaining in the 40s on Saturday. Nighttime lows will fall back into the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN NOV 7 2021 High pressure will maintain mostly clear skies as well as light and variable winds through the period. Some IFR or lower fog will develop through 12z within some of the deeper river valleys, before burning off between 13 and 14z. Visibility restrictions are not expected to impact any of the TAF locations. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...GEOGERIAN