852 
FXUS63 KFGF 070445
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

Clear skies and light winds have resulted in temps falling to the
mid-upper 30s over parts of our CWA. This has leveled off, and
with increasing clouds we may not see too much more cooling
(though a few more locations could fall to freezing than
originally though). Adjustments made to reflect these near term
trends. 

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

High clouds are transitioning east of the region, with mostly
clear skies across much of our CWA. Building SW flow also will
result increasing high clouds late tonight and we are already
seeing this trend upstream in western ND. A surface trough and
warm front are draped near our western CWA and milder lows above
freezing are still expected overnight. Minor adjustments were 
made to match near term trends, otherwise forecast appears to be 
on track. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

A progressive zonal pattern continues to dominate the weather 
pattern through the weekend. Winds will turn southerly this 
afternoon as a surface boundary makes its way through the CWA, 
advecting warmer air into the area. This is responsible for warmer 
temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Cirrus should 
continue to push eastward, leaving us with mostly clear to partly 
cloudy skies for tonight. Lows will be in the 30s to low 40s. 

Heading into Sunday morning, a weak cold front will 
push southeast through eastern North Dakota and west central 
Minnesota. This will have little effect on temperatures, but will 
turn our winds northerly for a brief time and drop low temperatures 
tomorrow night into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Winds will return to 
their westerly state late Sunday night into early Monday morning. 
Precipitation is not expected with this system, and no impacts are 
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

Good agreement with ensemble solns for the first half of next week 
with divergent solns developing towards the middle to off the period.
Besides a low end chance, around 20 percent, of some rain showers 
Monday in the southern valley the region as a jet streak lifts NE in 
the SW flow aloft dry conditions are expected until Wednesday. 
Timing of the upper waves will drive the precip chances and 
placement. With cluster analysis indicating the potential for mainly 
2 varying solns one with a stronger wave across the north and 
stronger ridge to the east and another with a weaker ridge and more 
progressive wave. Cold air will not be available until the back side 
of the wave which could bring some slushy snow, 50% chance, and a 
lower, 10% chance, for impactful snow. 

Until then temps will be in the 40s and 50s for highs and then with 
the increasing clouds and precip highs will be in the 30s Thursday 
and Friday with lows in the 30s cooling into the 20s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with light
south-southeast winds around 5kt thorugh Sunday morning shifting
to the north then west as a cold front moves through the region.
Winds may increase to around 10kt at times.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DJR