776 FXUS61 KOKX 070326 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1126 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the area through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the south and west Monday into Tuesday before weakening Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. A weak frontal system passes to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure returns Wednesday night through Thursday, building in from the north and west. High pressure moves offshore Friday with another frontal system from the west approaching thereafter. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Forecast remains on track with ideal conditions for radiational cooling ,namely clear skies and light to calm winds, to continue through much of the overnight. Adjusted temperatures down a few degrees in the outlying locations. High pressure weakens tonight as low pressure starts to pull slowly away from the Southeast coast, with more in the way of high clouds moving in late tonight from the system to the south. Temperatures tonight will be in the lower 40s with 20s well inland and in the Long Island Pine Barrens. For locations that have not ended their growing season, Southern Nassau will have lows in the mid 30s and is expected to develop frost late tonight into early Sunday morning. Frost advisory is in effect for Southern Nassau overnight into early Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As a low pressure system to the south moves northeast, high clouds should continue to increase through the day on Sunday, then clear out Sunday night especially late as upper ridging starts to build from the west. Temperatures Sunday night will not be quite as cool as the last couple of nights, with lows in the low to mid 40s in NYC to the upper 20s to lower 30s in the normally cooler outlying areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid levels depict some slight ridging across the region in an overall WSW flow Monday into Tuesday along with negative vorticity advection. Mid level trough approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday with most of its positive vorticity advection staying north and west of the region. Mid level ridging resumes Wednesday night through Thursday night with a large trough then approaching from the west Friday into start of next weekend. At the surface, high pressure builds in early next week but its center will be primarily south and west of the region. It will be strong enough to suppress clouds and weather is expected to remain dry. Cooler NE flow weakens Monday into Monday night with prime radiational cooling conditions expected Monday night. Then, on Tuesday with more of a SW flow developing, low level warm air advection is expected. Highs will be trending up Monday and Tuesday from highs mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday to highs getting more in the low to mid 60s Tuesday. A weak frontal system with a weak cold front moving across Wednesday will only result in a slight decrease in temperature for Wednesday's highs. Highs Wednesday forecast are in the lower 60s mostly. weather is expected to remain dry with just a brief increase in clouds expected. Near normal high temperatures expected Thursday with high pressure building in from the north and west. Another relatively warmer day is forecast for Friday (low to mid 60s) with increasing southerly flow ahead of the next larger frontal system. With the approach of this system, rain showers return to the forecast Thursday night. Chances for rain showers remain for Friday into start of next weekend. Highs forecast are near normal for next Saturday. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Generally VFR as high pressure remains in control through Sunday. FG/FZFG may develop near KSWF once again between 12Z and 14Z Sunday morning. Light winds of less than 10 kt are expected through the TAF period, and may end up being light and variable for much of the forecast period. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sun Night-Wed...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Below SCA conditions expected across all area waters through the weekend. Some SCA ocean seas are forecast Monday through early Tuesday with the increasing easterly swells. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions are expected for winds and for all non-ocean waters. Below SCA conditions are expected across all the forecast waters later Tuesday afternoon through Thursday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides due to a recent new moon, running near 0.5 to 1 ft below minor flood thresholds along with light winds and increasing easterly swell will lead to a little extra surge through Monday. This will be enough to produce isolated to scattered minor coastal flooding along shorelines of Western Long Island, Staten Island as well as the Western Long Island Sound. Coastal flood advisories and statements have been issued for Sunday with increasing confidence in isolated to scattered minor coastal flooding. ETSS Forecast surge appears to be slightly higher on Sunday, approximately 0.1 ft comparing Sunday to earlier today. Astronomical levels decrease about 0.2 ft. Would expect total water level forecast to be slightly less than earlier today, which would easily make for another day of minor coastal flooding in multiple locations for near Staten Island and Brooklyn shorelines, the South Shore Bays, as well as near Stamford CT and Bridgeport CT where earlier high tides had water levels exceeding minor flood benchmarks by approximately 0.2 to 0.4 ft. Going to Sunday, basically most of the shorelines across the western half of the CWA are expected to experience isolated to scattered areas of minor coastal flooding. Areas with a coastal flood advisory are expected to experience multiple locations of minor coastal flooding where forecast water levels a few tenths of a foot above minor. These areas include South Shore Back Bays of Southern Nassau, the lower NY Harbor along shorelines of Staten Island and Brooklyn as well as Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester shorelines. Coastal flood statement areas cover where minor coastal flooding will be isolated and where total water levels will just touch or exceed by 0.1 ft the minor coastal flood benchmark. These areas include the Upper part of NY Harbor, Kings Point NY vicinity, and some other shoreline locations along Bronx, northern Queens, northern Nassau and northwest Suffolk. For Monday, astronomical levels are about 0.3 to 0.4 ft lower with just a slight increase in surge, perhaps additional 0.1 ft surge according to ETSS. The easterly swell will still be building however, so would not expect too much of a drop with forecast total water levels. Therefore, there will be potential for some locations to still experience minor coastal flooding such as the South Shore Bays as well as possibly near Stamford CT and Bridgeport CT where multiple locations could get minor coastal flooding. For other western shorelines, there will be potential for just isolated minor coastal flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM EST Sunday for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM EST Sunday for NYZ071. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for NYZ179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to noon EST Sunday for NYZ074- 075-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/JM NEAR TERM...Fig/JM SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MW MARINE...Fig/JM HYDROLOGY...Fig/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...