697 
FXUS65 KBOI 070315
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
915 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...Evening satellite and radar imagery showing
precipitation continuing across southwest Idaho as drier air 
works into southeast Oregon. The rain/snow will end overnight as
the drier air mass continues to advance eastward. Snow levels 
have dropped to around 5kft over the w-central Idaho mountains
this evening and will continue to lower as precipitation tapers 
off. Have updated the forecast for the lower snow levels,
otherwise it's on track for tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR. Pockets of MVFR in low clouds and light 
showers. Mtns obscd at times. Snow level near 4500-5500 feet this 
evening. Conditions improving by midnight. Surface winds: West to 
Northwest 5 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts in the vcnty of showers
then light and variable aft 07/06z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:West
20 to 30 kts then decreasing aft 07/12z to 10 to 20kts. 

Sunday Outlook...Generally VFR, except areas of MVFR to IFR in Magic 
Valley and Southern Owyhee County due to low stratus and patchy 
fog late Sunday night. Otherwise, mid clouds over the region but 
dry with light surface winds.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A deep upper trough
will continue to dig into the Pacific Northwest and swing a cold
front across the region later today. Southeast to southwest winds
will also become breezy this afternoon, turning west to northwest
behind the cold frontal passage. Showers will increase in 
coverage and become widespread during the afternoon today with 
snow levels between 5500-6500 ft MSL. The heaviest precipitation 
will occur in the evening as most showers exit southeastern Oregon
and progress into Idaho. Showers will linger over higher terrain 
of southwest Idaho through the morning, with snow levels lowering 
to 3000-4000 ft. The West Central and Boise Mountains will see 
additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches as this system 
passes. Model soundings are hinting at the development of a weak 
surface inversion overnight Sunday into Monday morning, so patchy
fog was added to the forecast. Monday will see below-normal
temperatures and dry conditions ahead of an incoming system late
Monday night.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...A deep longwave trough will 
enter the region early Tuesday morning bringing colder temperatures 
and widespread valley rain and high elevation snow showers through 
Wednesday morning. Snow levels will lower to 3500-5000 feet MSL 
through Wednesday morning, then they will rise to 5000-6000 feet MSL 
through Friday. Lowering snow levels will bring a light to moderate 
snow accumulations to high elevations including the Long Valley and 
Central Mountains of Idaho on Tuesday and early Wednesday. A 
building ridge will then bring warmer temperatures and widespread 
light rain to the region ahead of a warm front on Thursday. 
Northwest flow will continue as the ridge builds in bringing 
isolated light rain and high elevation snow showers to the West 
Central Mountains on Friday. Mid level clouds will build in for the 
rest of the region as the ridge persists through the beginning of 
the weekend. A temperature inversion could bring valley stratus and 
fog Saturday morning. 

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....CR
PREV SHORT TERM...AL
PREV LONG TERM....SA