972 
FXUS62 KKEY 070233
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1033 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z sounding at KEY sampled a well-mixed layer between the
surface and the 925 mb isobaric level, with a formidable 
subsidence inversion present at around 850 mb. A very dry 
atmosphere is evident above this subsidence inversion, with the 
sounding sampling only 0.76 inches of total precipitable water 
(well below the 25th percentile for the location, date, and time 
of day). KBYX radar is nearly echo free. Although a nocturnal-
instability driven shower cannot be ruled out, especially in the 
vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys, most island communities 
should remain dry overnight. Coicident with the fresh 
northwesterly flow, expecting a pretty wide range in low 
temperatures for the night, where the Lower Keys may struggle to 
get out of the lower 70s, while portions of the Upper Keys should 
bottom out in the lower 60s. Overall, no changes are needed or 
planned for this evening update cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in Effect for all Florida Keys nearshore
and offshore coastal waters. From synopsis, intensifying low 
pressure off the coast of Northeast Florida will result in fresh 
to occasionally strong northwest to north breezes overnight. As 
the low pressure slowly moves northeastward through Tuesday, fresh
northerly breezes will gradually slacken, becoming gentle to 
moderate northeast breezes. Below normal rain chances are expected
through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and Marathon 
terminals through the forecast period. Few to scattered cloud cover 
is expected through the overnight hours, however, cloud cover will 
decrease towards 08Z. With bellow normal chances of rain, there is 
no need to include VCSH contidions in the current terminal 
forecasts. The main story for this forecast period is the surface 
winds speeds. Surface winds will be out of the northwest between 8 
to 14 knots and gusting to up 21 knots. 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....KR
Data Acquisition.....DR

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