904 FXUS64 KMEG 070133 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 833 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 .UPDATE... Not much change in the forecast this evening. Clearing skies could lead to some radiational fog across the area. Patchy fog especially near the rivers will be possible. Sunday looks to be sunny with highs in the 60s. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ DISCUSSION... Rinse and repeat of yesterday. A beautiful fall day. Temperatures are in the upper 50s and low 60s with a nice breeze. Latest satellite imagery shows clouds over north Mississippi and west Tennessee. Clouds should clear out through this evening. With a clear sky overnight, coupled with minimal wind, patchy dense fog is possible. Temperatures overnight are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s. A surface high is sitting over the region, while an upper level ridge is continuing to build in from Mexico. An upper level low will push east off the Florida coast. Flow aloft shifts more north- northwestward. With the surface high, upper level ridging and plenty of sunshine temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s by Monday. Overnight temperatures are expected to flow suit and increase into the low to mid 40s. The aforementioned surface high shifts to our east and a shortwave trough will rotate through the Lower Great Lakes. A dry cold front looks to stall to our north. With lack of moisture no rain is expected at this time. In the meantime, another shortwave will move southeast across the Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday. A cold front should arrive Thursday afternoon into the evening. The cold fronts pushes through the region by Saturday afternoon. Post frontal passage, daytime temperatures will cool back down into the low 50s with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 30s. SMW AVIATION... 18Z TAFs Shallow cumulus field developed at midmorning, mainly east of the MS River. The cumulus was likely rooted in a shallow elevated moist layer, above the morning boundary layer inversion. GOES visible imagery indicated a slight cyclonic curvature to the cu field near MEM late this morning, near the westward extent of the cu field, perhaps indicative of weak convergence and late morning MVFR ceiling potential. MEM aircraft soundings verified the 12Z MEM NAM Bufr sounding, showing a steep thermal inversion above FL035 - capping the vertical extent of the cumulus. HREF depicts the cumulus mixing out during the early/mid afternoon. Overnight fog potential is likely of greater concern. NAM Bufr soundings depicted very steep saturated boundary layer, even at MEM. Given the fog this morning, minimal wind today and clearing skies, the setup appears conducive for late night fog development. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$