317 FXUS62 KCAE 070020 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 820 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will begin tracking away from the southeastern US tonight and slowly push further into the Atlantic Sunday allowing dry air to return to the area Sunday morning. Ridging and moderating temperatures will be over the region for much of next week with rain chances return late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Low pressure off the GA Coast continues to slowly move northward with rain along the SC Coast and Coastal Plain. Overnight the low will begin accelerating to the northeast with the rain moving northward along the coast. Over the forecast area a complex scenario continues to unfold with a very tight moisture gradient in place. The strong and gusty northerly winds continue advecting dry air into the area resulting in pwat values ranging from one inch or greater in the eastern Midlands to around one half inch in the western Midlands. This continues to limit the westward extent of the rain with CAE WSR-88D continuing to show showers dissipating as they move into the central Midlands and CSRA. This trend will continue through the overnight hours with pops falling toward daybreak as the low begins moving away from the region. Winds will remain strong and gusty...especially in the eastern Midlands where the pressure gradient remains tightest. Current CAE VWP shows 25 knots at 1 kft with 35 knots at 2 kft. With better mixing over area lakes will keep the lake wind advisory in place. Overnight lows with the extensive clouds and mixing range from the lower 40s in the western Midlands to the mid 40s in the eastern Midlands. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A coastal low pressure system slowly moves farther offshore on Sunday. Clouds will decrease during the day and northerly winds will gradually diminish. High temperatures will be much warmer with ample afternoon sunshine. High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U.S. Monday through Tuesday with mostly clear skies and above normal high temperatures for mid November. Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows in the lower to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure aloft remains in place Tuesday Night through Wednesday, before the pattern transitions later in the week. A strong upper level trough is forecast to push into the Eastern U.S. Veterans Day through Saturday. The ensembles differ significantly on the depth of this upper trough. This variance in model solutions impacts the magnitude of potential cold air intrusion into The Midlands and CSRA next weekend. The best estimate this far out is a chance of showers Friday through Saturday and a modest cooling trend on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Closed low and surface low pressure offshore NE FL will continue to move slowly to the ENE. Wrap around moisture affecting mainly the coastal plain, but some light rain making into our FA. MVFR CIGS affecting OGB and are close to CAE/CUB, and will expect this cloud cover to work west and affect our TAF sites overnight. Based on model data, CAE VWP, and latest AMDAR soundings, decided to include mention of LLWS. The system will move out Sunday, with a return to VFR but continued breezy. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected Sunday night through Wednesday except some late night/early morning shallow ground fog possible at fog prone AGS and OGB Tue/Wed. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST Sunday for GAZ040-063>065- 077. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST Sunday for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. && $$