606 
FXUS63 KFSD 070004
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
704 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

A couple of very nice days weather-wise for a early November weekend 
across the Northern Plains. Temperatures have warmed nicely under a 
mostly sunny sky with widespread 60s to lower 70s. 

Upper level jet streak noses into the ridge overnight with the main 
impact being an increase in upper level clouds. Not out of the 
question to get some patchy fog in low lying areas again but not 
expecting anything widespread. Otherwise, lows stay fairly mild in 
the low to mid 40s. 

Ridge axis squarely overhead for Sunday will provide for another mild 
day across the region. NAM and a few of its derivatives suggest some 
lingering fog or stratus along the upslope side of the Buffalo Ridge 
in SW MN which in turn cuts back temperatures but this seems more 
likely to be an outlier solution with a moist biased model. More 
likely solution that 925/850 mb temperatures above the 90th 
percentile of climatology provide for high temperatures in the mid 
60s to mid 70s once again barring any thicker cirrus. May also see a 
bit of an uptick in winds near/east of I-29 furthest away from the 
inverted surface trough. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

Boundary works through Sunday night into Monday morning, ushering in 
cooler temperatures for Monday, albeit still on the warm side of 
normal (mainly 50s). Fairly robust 700 mb frontogenesis will provide 
for an area of precipitation across western and northern SD but at 
this time looks to stay void of our coverage area. At least some 
indication in the ensemble members that areas from Chamberlain to 
Brookings still not completely out of the envelope of potential 
possibilities for small precipitation chances however. 

Consensus favors quiet conditions for Tuesday with surface high 
pressure meandering through the region. With this said, ECMWF is
an outlier solution with a subtle shortwave and associated light
QPF and has at least modest support from its ensemble system. 

The Wednesday through Friday time period continues to be one of 
interest although run to run guidance at least showing some 
consensus of settling into better phasing occurring just to our 
east. Plenty of moving parts however so not a ton of confidence can 
be placed into any one solution at this point. What appears to be of 
highest certainty is a period of a fair amount of wind for the 
second half of the work week with perhaps increasing precipitation 
chances as well, particularly along/east of I-29. Individual
ensemble probabilities suggest NBM POPs may be on the low side,
likely suffering from timing differences. Better influx of colder
air looks to lag better precipitation chances so any 
precipitation through the daytime hours Thursday looks to favor 
that of the liquid variety, perhaps transitioning to light snow 
thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

Cirrus will increase through the night. Some patchy valley fog may
again be possible, but the cirrus may hold temperatures up enough
to prohibit the development. 

A light southerly wind with cirrus overhead will continue on
Sunday. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...Dux