826 FXUS64 KSHV 070002 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 702 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 .AVIATION... For the 07/00Z TAF update, calm winds will be further established under surface high pressure as the part of the center of the air mass moves over our airspace through the period. Clear skies now (in addition to calm winds) will maximize conditions for widespread patchy FG and IFR/LIFR vis/cigs to develop across nearly all terminals by 07/10Z-15Z. After the patchy FG lifts, light southerly winds slowly return with clear VFR skies persisting through the end of the period. /16/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/ Very nice day for most sites with abundant sunshine and warmer mid 60s about to top off this afternoon. Stratus clouds have been very stubborn in many of the LA parishes along a south of I-20. Readings are still in the 50s where sunshine is just now finally cracking the cloud deck. Dew points are higher in these areas and will really soup up toward daybreak with areas of fog, some 1/4 mi at times. We will see slightly warmer upper 30s and lower 40s to start the new day even earlier with sunrise at 6:38 a.m. Overall, once the fog lifts tomorrow morning we will be partly cloudy with highs getting back to average for early Nov. A warming trend will unfold with the new work week as the cool high pressure areas drifts farther to our East. We will winds slowly pick up from the SE tomorrow as the high makes a move and the flow on the back side filters some Gulf moisture back inland. /24/ LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday Night/ The axis of an upper ridge and the center of a surface ridge will gradually move east of the area Monday. As deep southerly flow returns in the wake of the departing ridges, low-level warm air advection will allow temperatures to continue to warm. Daytime highs Monday through Wednesday will likely climb well into the 70s areawide, and possibly near 80 degrees F across some portions of East Texas south of Interstate 20 as low-level southerly flow strengthens. Deep layer moisture will be much slower to return as the upper ridge very slowly flattens, and the flow aloft eventually transitions to more of a westerly flow by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. No rain is expected through Wednesday afternoon. Late Wednesday and into Thursday, a deep upper trough will dive southeast out of Canada, across the Northern Plains, and towards the Great Lakes. A weaker lead shortwave trough will move across the Central CONUS ahead of it. As the shortwave moves out of the Rockies, a leeside surface low will rapidly develop along a cold front over the Plains, which will move eastward towards the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop in the warm sector ahead of the front, spreading southeast across the area Wednesday night and into much of Thursday. Large scale forcing will not be overly strong, and instability will be meager, which should limit the potential for severe weather. However, there does appear to be some elevated instability and some modestly steep lapse rates aloft, so I did keep a mention of thunderstorms in the forecast ahead of the front. Medium range models continue to indicate much of the precip will be post-frontal with this system. The NBM continues to be very slow with ending precip across the area, which is somewhat similar to the Canadian, in keeping precip on North Central Louisiana until sunrise Friday morning. However, the GFS and ECMWF are much quicker removing all precip from the area Thursday evening. For now, I kept low-end PoPs in the forecast through 12z Friday, but trended quite a bit lower than the NBM. A cool surface ridge will settle southeast into the Southern Plains behind the departing cold front. This will deliver another shot of cold air into the region. Overnight lows will likely fall back into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and daytime highs will only be in the 50s and 60s to end the work week. /CN/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 42 71 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 39 69 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 36 69 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 41 69 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 36 68 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 41 73 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 40 72 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 41 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 16/24/09