159 FXUS61 KCLE 052318 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 718 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A broad area of high pressure will influence the region through the weekend before a cold front moves southeast across the area by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A quiet near term period is anticipated as high pressure anchors over the local area. This will lead to mostly clear to clear skies outside of some lingering clouds in Northwest PA and dry weather across the entire CWA. Tonight's low's should fall into the lower 30s to upper 20s since there will be little or no insulation from cloud cover. Saturday will feature slightly warmer temperatures as southerly to southwesterly flow and warm air advection develop, with highs in the lower 50s and lows in the upper 20s to low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure ridging aloft builds eastward through Sunday night and then crests over our CWA Monday through Monday night. At the surface, a high pressure ridge axis remains near the spine of the Appalachians and the ridge continues to influence our region. This ridge will likely promote fair weather. Southerly to southwesterly surface winds on the backside of the surface ridge will be associated with low-level WAA, which will contribute to unusually- warm temperatures, overall. Late afternoon high temperatures in the mid 50's to lower 60's on Sunday should moderate to the upper 50's to mid 60's on Monday. Overnight lows in the mid 30's to lower 40's Sunday night should moderate to the upper 30's to upper 40's Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure at the surface and aloft exits eastward Tuesday as a shortwave trough and accompanying surface low approach from the Upper Midwest. Fair weather should persist as afternoon highs reach the upper 50's to mid 60's under increasing cloud cover. The shortwave trough advances eastward across the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley Tuesday night and the attendant surface low should move generally eastward across the Lower Great Lakes. The low's trailing and weak cold front should sweep southeastward through our CWA Tuesday night and may be accompanied by isolated rain showers. Overnight lows should reach the 40's. Fair weather is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure at the surface and aloft builds from the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes Wednesday and begins to advance toward New England Wednesday night while still influencing our CWA. Daytime highs should reach the mid 50's to lower 60's Wednesday and be followed by overnight lows in the 40's Wednesday night. Rain chances increase gradually from the south and especially west Thursday and particularly Thursday night as high pressure at the surface and aloft continues exiting eastward, a deep longwave trough approaches from the central U.S., a warm conveyor belt taps into Gulf of Mexico moisture and undergoes isentropic ascent aloft, and a surface warm front drifts northward through our CWA. Daytime highs should reach the mid 50's to mid 60's Thursday. Overnight lows should reach the 40's to perhaps lower 50's Thursday night. A surface cold front may begin to sweep eastward across our CWA Friday as the deep longwave trough begins to overspread our CWA from the western Great Lakes and MS River Valley. Additional periods of rain are expected in association with the pre-frontal warm conveyor belt undergoing isentropic ascent and lift along the cold front. Models continue to show moderate to strong vertical wind shear within the warm sector, yet abundant cloud cover and precip may greatly limit MUCAPE and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Daytime highs should reach the mid to upper 50's on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure continues to expand across the area. Winds should be light and variable tonight, becoming south and generally 10 knots or less by tomorrow afternoon. Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Winds less than about 15 knots and 3 foot or smaller waves are expected through this Wednesday. Winds trend southerly to southwesterly through Tuesday as the core of high pressure ridging remains east through south of Lake Erie and the ridging affects the lake. A low should move generally eastward across the southern Great Lakes Tuesday night and allow the trailing, weak cold front to sweep southeastward across Lake Erie. This frontal passage will cause winds to veer from southwesterly to northerly. The northerly winds veer toward easterly on Wednesday as high pressure ridging builds from the western Great Lakes and the core of the ridge settles over southern Ontario. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maines NEAR TERM...Maines SHORT TERM...Jaszka LONG TERM...Jaszka AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Jaszka