627 FXUS62 KFFC 051125 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 725 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 ...12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion... .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021/ SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/... Mainly overcast conditions continue to prevail across the CWA this morning. Moisture trapped beneath an inversion in the lower levels is keeping a decent coverage of low clouds across much of the area while high clouds continue to stream overhead as cyclogenesis occurs to our southeast. The low clouds should thin out fairly quickly after sunrise, though abundant high clouds will remain in place, which will keep mostly cloudy conditions on tap for most of us through the day. These widespread morning clouds have also nixed our frost potential in far north Georgia this morning with temperatures running several degrees above forecast, so the Frost Advisory has been cancelled. Temperatures today will remain well below normal as cooler air funnels southwestward around the periphery of the developing coastal low to the southeast. While dry weather will be the rule for most of the area today, that will begin to change across the far southeast CWA by late afternoon and into this evening. Guidance has trended a bit farther west with the aforementioned coastal low, which spreads a shield of light to moderate rainfall into our southeast zones, especially tonight into Saturday morning. Rainfall totals have thus been adjusted upward with the potential for rainfall totals up to or just over an inch in the far southeast counties through tomorrow evening. There will be a sharp gradient in the precipitation to the northwest with totals tapering off quickly to zero a couple tiers of counties to the northwest. Given the increased cloud cover, morning lows Saturday are a tad warmer than the previous forecast. With that said, sufficient cloud scattering could allow some areas in the northeast Georgia mountains to dip to around freezing for a few hours Saturday morning. For this reason, a Freeze Watch has been watched for Fannin, Union, and Towns counties. Patchy frost will also be possible for adjacent areas of far north Georgia as well where clouds are less pervasive. Thicker clouds should preclude frost farther south. Skies will likely clear considerably across the northwest half or so of the area by midday Saturday with rain showers gradually shifting eastward away from the southeastern counties through Saturday evening. High temperatures will remain below normal areawide Saturday with the coolest temperatures across the southeast zones where clouds and showers will persist. Breezy northeast winds can also be expected, especially across the southeast two thirds or so of the forecast area, though well below Advisory criteria. RW LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... 500mb low will exit off the southeast coast Saturday night and move up the eastern seaboard through the weekend. N/NW flow aloft will persist on the backside of the trough through the early part of next week. Zonal flow will briefly establish itself during the middle part of the week. A longwave trough will begin to move into the Mississippi Valley by Thursday, with the upper flow shifting more to the SW. The initial trough should swing through late Thursday into Friday, with a much stronger secondary trough swinging through next weekend. At the surface, low pressure will continue to move east off the NE Florida coast Saturday night. High pressure will build in from the west and remain the dominant weather feature for the remainder of the weekend and well into next week. The high pressure ridge/center should begin to shift offshore later on Thursday ahead of an approaching front. The cold front looks to move through Friday into Saturday. Some light precip is possible on the backside of the exiting low Saturday night and potentially into early Sunday. Much of next week will be dry, with the next best chances for precip coming late in the week with a sharp cold front. The potential for frost/freeze headlines will continue for Saturday night and Sunday night. NListemaa && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Patchy MVFR/IFR cigs continue to scatter and diminish. Largely VFR cigs expected to prevail through the remainder of the period with BKN/OVC 15-25kft. Some potential for MVFR cigs at MCN again Saturday morning. Winds will remain NE at 8-12 kts with occasional gusts 15-20 kts. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 56 40 57 37 / 0 5 5 5 Atlanta 55 41 59 39 / 0 5 5 0 Blairsville 54 32 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 57 39 60 37 / 0 5 0 0 Columbus 59 43 61 40 / 0 10 10 0 Gainesville 54 40 58 38 / 0 5 5 0 Macon 57 43 55 39 / 5 20 20 5 Rome 59 37 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 56 40 59 37 / 0 5 5 0 Vidalia 56 43 52 44 / 30 70 60 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for the following zones: Fannin...Towns...Union. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...RW