600 FXUS65 KPIH 051116 AAA AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pocatello ID 516 AM MDT Fri Nov 5 2021 .UPDATE...Patchy fog is developing across portions of the Upper Snake Plain, eastern highlands and potentially the Stanley Basin once again. We added fog to those areas through around 11am. Keyes && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM MDT Fri Nov 5 2021/ SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday. Today will be a bit cooler and breezy. There are some lingering low and mid level clouds across the central mountains and up near the Divide. By this evening, clouds will be increasing along with a few light rain and snow showers across the Sawtooths and surrounding areas. Overnight, rain and snow increases pretty quickly across the central mountains...as well as some light precipitation around Island Park. Winds will also continue to ramp up across the higher elevations of the central mountains and Montana Divide, as well as along the southern benches of the Snake Plain. Winds will be fairly strong overnight above 9000ft, 25-35 mph with higher gusts. Snow levels across the central mountains and Divide will be hovering between 6000-7000ft. During the day tomorrow, rain and snow pretty much holds across the central mountains and the eastern highlands...eventually spreading into the Magic Valley very late in the afternoon. Snow levels by late afternoon will be holding around 6500-7500ft, except out ahead of the main precipitation band at 8000-8500ft. Winds will continue to be breezy, so some blowing snow is possible at highest elevations where it is the coldest. By sunrise Sunday, the main band of rain and snow pushes across the Snake Plain/Magic Valley and into the southern and eastern highlands. Winds will remain gusty into the evening, only remaining stronger across the Snake Plain and eastern highlands after midnight. We could still be blowing snow at or above pass level tomorrow night. Snow accumulations through tomorrow evening are expected to remain generally at or above 7000ft. With strong southwest flow...the Sawtooths, Boulders and Pioneers will be favored with higher amounts at 2-6 inches. For Banner and Galena Summits, only expect an inch or two. Similarly, the Centennials and mountains bordering Yellowstone will be favored with 1-4 inches...with little to no snow for passes in those areas. Keyes LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday. Cold front passes through the region Sunday. Have increased winds and gusts upward from NBM in the forecast to account for the Sunday frontal passage. System brings the chance for rain and rain-snow mix in the lower elevations and snow in the higher elevations. Total snow accumulations above 7Kft should generally be under 2" except 3-5" along the Divide and higher elevations along the Wyoming border. Both the GFS and ECMWF are now showing drier conditions overall for Monday, with precipitation exiting at different times. GFS has it exiting the region early Monday morning, while ECMWF has it lingering into the afternoon. Another round comes through Tuesday, bringing a more widespread chance for snow even in the lower elevations before turning into rain/rain-snow mix in the lower elevations. Deterministic models have the onset occurring at different times, with the GFS having precipitation beginning early morning Tuesday and ECMWF later into the morning. GFS also keeps precipitation around longer, into Thursday afternoon, while ECMWF clears it out by late Wednesday. Ensemble clusters still show spread in the depth and placement of the trough early next week, so event timing and QPF is still uncertain this far out. After this event, high pressure begins to build over the region for the remainder of the forecast period. Cropp/DMH AVIATION...VFR currently at all sites this morning, with mostly clear skies following the passing of a cold front through the region. Mid-upper ceilings will develop throughout the TAF period, but sites will remain VFR. Potential for KIDA to see gusts during afternoon hours. Another cold front will pass through the area late tonight/into the morning and therefore have included VCSH and wind gusts around 20kt reaching KSUN toward the end of the TAF period. Have forecasted VFR conditions throughout the TAF period at all sites. Cropp/DMH && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$